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@brad_setser
CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Writes on sovereign debt, trade, fx reserves and capital flows.
World & Business
A post argues China's headline data no longer supports a surplus-peak claim; first-half figures reflected surging gold imports.
World & Business
A post says China’s holdings fell $27 billion to $591 billion in August 2026; Japan’s fell $36 billion.
World & Business
The FT reports the condition; a commentator says alignment on plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles currently means somewhat different things.
World & Business
Brad Setser cites a jump in Canadian holdings and a June survey as evidence China uses a Canadian custodian.
World & Business
Brad Setser says East Asia's three-month customs surplus topped $2 trillion annualized, even with relatively high oil prices.
World & Business
WatcherGuru reported the September figure on October 14, 2026; AP says exports surged 36.3% from a year earlier.
World & Business
A user says gold-trade figures should account for bars, technically metal shapes, as well as the gold line item.
World & Business
CPCA's preliminary figures also show a 10% monthly rebound and new-energy vehicles reaching 67.1% of retail volume.
World & Business
A post also points to Taiwan, saying Taiwanese and other contract manufacturers have moved to Mexico for final assembly.
World & Business
CNBC reports Europe's trade chief called two days of Beijing talks with China's commerce minister a positive first step.
World & Business
The New York Times reports that China’s push to manufacture more at home is pressuring European industries and policymakers.
World & Business
One post says IMF recommendations for China include fiscal consolidation that, all else equal, would raise its current account surplus.
World & Business
Brad Setser puts Taiwan's September surplus close to $25 billion and Korea's at $50 billion, or around $900 billion annualized.
World & Business
A post says EU imports of Chinese hybrids rose to 500,000 cars in a market of just over 10 million.
World & Business
Brad Setser puts August’s annualized non-petrol goods deficit at about $1.7 trillion.
World & Business
Brad Setser says the balance was stable going into 2024, but has since fallen by half with batteries counted.
World & Business
Brad Setser says he has seen no real evidence that the 2.5-percentage-point gap is doing much.
World & Business
AFP reports in The Economic Times that EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic was due for two days of meetings starting October 8.
World & Business
A post says the numbers are “very clear” and argues that the world is confronting the shift in various ways.
World & Business
A poster disputes the idea that US tariffs pushed Chinese cars into Europe because China couldn't supply both markets.
