China's apparent surplus peak and a first-half gold-import surge

A user argues that a claim China's surplus had peaked no longer holds in headline data; they say it held in first-half data only because gold imports surged. Crediting another commentator, they say a 1.2-percentage-point year-to-date net export contribution implies a nearly 2-percentage-point year-over-year contribution in the third quarter, consistent with export volume growth about 10% higher than import volume growth.