'Mario Kart 64' Item Probabilities, Charted

​Anyone who has ever "enjoyed" a game of "Mario Kart 64" is all too familiar with how tenuous being in first place, or even near the front of the race, can be. Just as one manages to escape the mayhem of the pack, someone immediately fires a Blue Shell at you, hits you with a Lightning Bolt or comes screaming past you with a Super Mushroom.

If it feels like the Mario Kart Item Gods are always conspiring against you, well, they are. While the game's graphical representation of the slot-machine-as-item-granter would lead you to believe that what you get is just a dice roll, the reality is that it's carefully designed system that rewards players in lower places with items to help them catch up while players at the pointy end of the race get items that are more defensive or inconsequential. The result is an item system that ensures a certain level of chaos, frustration and ultimately, fun.

It's been a sort of known secret amongst Mario Kart speedrunners that the game gives players in lower places higher percentage changes for the more juicy items. But now, thanks to redditor MarcusAnnex, we have a handy chart that visualizes all of the item probabilities based on the place you're in and the mode you're playing.

On the left-hand column we have the average percentage you'll get an item if any game mode (a paltry 3 percent for a Boo versus 13 percent for Triple Mushrooms) and then those percentages broken down by specific mode (two-player, three-player- four-player and single player Grand Prix). On the right hand column is a shaded graph depicting just how likely you are to get a certain item depending on what place you're in. 

For example, being in first place in a three or four-player game will likely net you a single banana, while sitting in last place in a Grand Prix race will significantly up your chances for getting a Super Star.

If you'd really like to dig into the data, MarcusAnnex pulled these numbers from a "Mario Kart 64" speedrunning guide — which has even more fascinating info on finish line glitches, item manipulation and so on.

So the next time you're about to finally win, just for once, only to be foiled by a Blue Shell at the last possible second, just know that the game was designed this way — and you only have the numbers to blame.

[Reddit]