Who Will Win The Big Oscars Categories? Here's What All The Experts Are Predicting
If you're a casual moviegoer, maybe you'll fill out an Oscar ballot for fun this Sunday without having seen many of the nominees. Cinephiles might seek out predictions from their favorite film critics. For the truly obsessed, there's always FiveThirtyEight's modeling or the expert odds at GoldDerby. Here at Digg, we had a thought — if everyone's throwing their predictions out there, why don't we tally them up? So that's exactly what we did.
Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Viola Davis, Fences — 100%
We're kicking off our shortlist of predictions with the only nomination that took everybody's top spot in their predictions. Regardless of the methodology — gut checks, number crunching based on other awards, reading tea leaves — absolutely everybody has Davis taking home the Oscar.
Runner-up: If Davis loses, hell has frozen over
Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight — 94.8%
From Luke Cage to Hidden Figures to Moonlight, Ali has had a great year and nearly everybody is banking on him riding that wave to a win.
Runner-up: Dev Patel, Lion — 5.2%
Our roundup for the Top 10 Best Movies of 2016 put Moonlight on top, but a last-minute BAFTAs win for Patel has convinced a few that Oscar voters could do the unthinkable and deny Ali the Oscar here.
Best Lead Actor
Prediction: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea — 54.9%
The closest race by far, and it's outcome will likely be scrutinized the most either way. Critics loved Affleck's performance but his nomination alone sparked outcry given allegations of sexual harassment.
Runner-up: Denzel Washington, Fences — 45.1%
If Denzel wins, it'd be a stretch to call it an upset. If you look at Affleck's troubles, last year's #OscarsSoWhite criticisms, and Washington's deserving performance in Fences, voters might be swayed to leave Ben's brother empty-handed.
Best Lead Actress
Prediction: Emma Stone, La La Land — 86.3%
If Stone's Golden Globe win didn't have "in a comedy or musical" tacked on at the end, she'd be a complete lock for this one.
Runner-up: Isabelle Huppert, Elle — 11.8%
A lone wolf at a single website in our roundup put Natalie Portman on their ballot — but more likely than that "zag" would be the Academy making a "zig" and giving the Oscar to Huppert for her role in Paul Verhoeven's French-language thriller. That said, Stone probably has this because…
Best Director
Prediction: Damien Chazelle, La La Land — 98%
…La La Land will very likely dominate these awards. It's tied the record number of nominations set by All About Eve and Titanic (14). Don't expect a repeat of Whiplash — the chances of Chazelle losing this are slim, and everybody knows it.
Runner-up: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight — 2%
If anyone takes it from Chazelle it'll be Jenkins. Surely not Mel Gibson… right?
Best Picture
Prediction: La La Land — 94.1%
Unless you haven't read any movie coverage in the past few months or have literally been living under a rock without WiFi, you knew this was coming. La La Land has been a favorite to win for months, and if (when) it does there'll be an endless stream of thinkpieces on what that says about the Academy and America, even though it's been a done deal.
Runner-up: Moonlight — 5.9%
Or… the Oscars could pull a reverse-2016 and give Moonlight the nod. Most outlets agree that'd be the expected-unexpected move here — despite praise for latecomer Hidden Figures, Moonlight is by far the consensus pick for Best Picture shocker, and the slept-on nominees like Arrival and Hell or High Water simply don't stand a chance. If Moonlight does nab the win, the one columnist who picked it in our tally is going to have a great evening.
A note on methodology: Nothing fancy here, just tallying up all the predictions we could find from publishers and movie critics around the internet and dividing to get some nifty percentages. Still, we hope this helps you look smart at your Oscars watch party.
