Is Roy Moore Going To Win Today's Senate Election In Alabama?

Alabama's special Senate election is today, and the country wants to know: can Roy Moore, the controversial judge and accused child molester, really win a seat in America's most prestigious lawmaking body? Ultimately, the answer to that question probably won't arrive until Tuesday evening, but here's where the situation stands now.

What Do The Polls Say?

Political polls of the state have come out as decidedly mixed ahead of the election. On Monday, a Fox News poll put Democrat Doug Jones 10 points ahead of Roy Moore among likely voters, a Monmouth poll put the race as a dead heat, and an Emerson poll put Moore ahead by 9 points. Which is to say: It's up in the air. 

RealClearPolitics' polling average from the past two weeks puts Moore ahead by 2.5 points, and ranks the race a "Toss Up."

Adding more uncertainty is the fact that, as Vox and FiveThirtyEight note, polling in special elections is notoriously difficult to do because of the non-traditional circumstances.

Jones Is Targeting Black Voters

Democrats appear to have two a two-pronged strategy in Alabama that might reap dividends. The first prong is boosting voter turnout and engagement among existing Democratic voters. Black voters, who make up a quarter of Alabama's population, are crucial.

Popular black politicians are heavily campaigning for Jones ahead of the vote. Barack Obama has taped a get out the vote robocall encouraging black voters to go to the polls and New Jersey Senator Corey Booker and former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick campaigned with Jones for multiple days. The Jones campaign is also flooding black radio stations with commercials, and has reportedly purchased a large file of black cell phone numbers to for a texting-based get out the vote effort, according to The New York Times.

Fox News' most recent poll shows four percent more black voters supporting Jones than did in the poll taken a month earlier. Of those "extremely interested" in the election, Democrats (50%) lead Republicans (45%), another increase from last month's poll.

…And Trying To Flip Republicans

Another core part of Jones' strategy is flipping Republicans, or at least preventing them from voting for Moore. After the accusations of sexual misconduct surfaced against Moore, Jones' campaign released multiple ads featuring Republicans who spoke out against Moore or were voting Democrat in the special election.

Republican Senator Richard Shelby, who has served as a senator for Alabama since 1986 may have dealt a major blow to Moore by telling CNN Sunday that he voted for a write-in candidate, rather than Moore, in an absentee ballot. Shelby told The Washington Post that his decision was partially based on the corporate world's potential reaction to the election.

Almost 2,000 people are part of a Facebook group called Republicans for Doug Jones, but it's unclear how many are in the state and actually Republicans. ThinkProgress, Politico, and CNN have all published pieces identifying Republicans who plan to vote for Jones.

What's Working For Moore

Despite the unprecedented nature of the Alabama election, many things are working against Doug Jones. Mother Jones writes that Republicans in the state have consistently worked to suppress the minority, Democratic vote by imposing voter ID laws, closing DMVs in majority-black districts, and changing campaign finance laws to weaken get out the vote efforts.

On top of that, President Trump has officially backed Moore, tweeting support, recording a robocall, and holding a rally miles away from the Alabama-Florida border. The RNC, who withdrew support from Moore's campaign after the initial sexual assault allegations were made against him, has reinvested, giving the Alabama Republican Party $170,000.

History gives even worse odds for Jones. A Democrat hasn't been elected to the Senate from Alabama since 1990.