Wisconsin's Primaries Are High Stakes — Here's What You Can Expect
As the pace of primaries and debates slows, it may feel like the races for party nominations to the presidency are cooling off. But as Bernie tails Clinton and Trump inches closer to the Republican nomination, Tuesday's Wisconsin primaries are as high stakes as the battles that came before them — providing a make or break moment in both races. Here's what you need to know.
Can Cruz Top Trump?
A Cruz Win Could Set Trump Further Off Course From A Solid Path To The Nomination
After less than ideal numbers for Trump in March 15th's "Mega-Tuesday" primaries, he lost his once solid path to the Republican nomination (you can experiment yourself with his paths to the nomination here). Tuesday's primary — which will be winner take all if a candidate can win in votes and take all of the state's congressional districts — could either set him back on track or increase the likelihood of a contested convention. See below for a graph illustrating Trump's delegate goals (in black) against his actual delegate performance (in color).
[ABC News and FiveThirtyEight]
The Last Six Polls Point To A Cruz Win
In the last six polls, Ted Cruz wins against Trump — and in the last four Cruz leads Trump by 5 points or more.
Some Believe Governor Scott Walker's Endorsement Is Crucial To Cruz's Lead
Cruz likely received a bump in his polling this week when he was endorsed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. The former presidential candidate and popular governor has filmed a TV ad in support of Cruz and has campaigned with him around the state.
Of Course, Donald Trump Remains Confident That He'll Win The State
On Monday, Trump reminded voters that South Carolina's Governor's also endorsed another candidate (Marco Rubio) ahead of that state's primary, yet Trump won handily by 10 points:
"It was over, and I have a feeling the same thing's gonna happen here. Because Walker has not done a great job […] He has not done a good job. By the way, he's been OK. You're average. I hate to say it. You look around your surrounding states, you know what you are? Average! You're not average people, right? So big deal. You've got the governor."
[Politico]
Can A Sanders Win Keep His Campaign Running?
Sanders Has To Win Big In Wisconsin (And The States To Come) To Catch Up
Unlike the GOP side, all Democratic delegates are allocated on a proportional basis, which means a two- or four-point Sanders win (as the current polling reflects) won't really alter the math in the Democratic race. If Sanders wants to overtake Clinton in pledged delegates, he needs to win in Wisconsin (as well as New York and California) by MUCH bigger margins.
[NBC News]
Current Wisconsin Polls Put Sanders Ahead Of Clinton
The last four polls have shown Sanders leading the race in Wisconsin by tight margins.
But Overall, Clinton Is Holding Onto A Strong Lead
Clinton continues to lead by over 250 pledged delegates1 and by even more when superdelegates2 are considered. Even if Sanders wins all 86 pledged delegates, he still has a lot of work to do.
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