ARK Invest's Oct. 19, 2026, Tesla valuation projects an expected share price of about $4,400 in 2031. Its roughly $5,000 bull and $3,300 bear figures are the 75th and 25th percentile outcomes of a simulation using 32 independent inputs.
Robotaxis carry the forecast
ARK estimates that robotaxis will account for about 80% of Tesla's enterprise value in 2031. Its base-case projections include 8.1 million robotaxi vehicles, $753 billion in ride-hail net revenue and a $17.5 trillion market capitalization for Tesla alone.
A merger outside the model
ARK also writes that Tesla and SpaceX could merge within five years. The possibility is separate from its standalone Tesla valuation. ARK suggests a Tesla robotaxi network could help fund SpaceX orbital data centers, while SpaceX AI models could help plan deployments of Tesla's Optimus robots.
For a hypothetical combination, ARK estimates the companies could generate $3.8 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in earnings before interest and taxes by 2031. It projects SpaceX would account for roughly 62% of that revenue and 69% of those earnings. These are forecasts for a possible combined business, not the figures behind the $4,400 Tesla share-price projection.
ARK describes its forecasts as hypothetical and highly speculative. It identifies a slower-than-expected expansion of robotaxi operations, including potential regulatory delays, as the primary risk to its forecast.
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