The U.S. tariff gap between China and Europe under Trump’s second term

Setser says U.S. tariffs on trade with China stood at 12.5% in October 2026, compared with 10% or 12.5% for most other partners, subject to exceptions and higher rates for autos and metals. He says he has seen no real evidence that the 2.5-point China–Europe gap is doing much. He credits first-term tariffs with insulating U.S. autos from a “second China shock” and says an earlier 20% across-the-board tariff had an impact on final computer assembly, which left China nearly completely. He notes that the fentanyl tariff is no longer in place.