Stock-market rally expectations and diesel-price risks
Kalshi relayed Tom Lee’s view that his predicted stock-market rally is merely delayed. A separate post argues that sustained high diesel prices pose a bigger risk to stock returns than short spikes.
TLDR
Kalshi said on September 17 that Tom Lee considers the stock-market rally he predicted merely delayed. Separately, a user described testing 55 diesel-surge episodes over 21 years and argued that quick spikes do not crash stocks. The analysis reports positive SPY returns after sharp diesel increases, but weaker results when diesel stayed elevated for months. Its central argument: sustained high prices matter more than brief spikes, especially for small-cap stocks.
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2 Sources, first seen 11d ago