Hold or hike? The Fed's September rate decision
Kalshi said on September 16 that a White House economist considered raising rates that week a "mistake." A market commenter predicted a pullback regardless of the Fed's decision.
TLDR
Kalshi said on September 16 that a White House economist viewed a Fed rate hike that week as a "mistake." Separately, a market commenter asked whether the Fed would hold or hike, then predicted a market pullback either way. That commenter described the best-case outcome as a hold paired with a signal that the Fed was willing to hike later in 2026 if warranted.
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