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David Reber (@davidpreber) · Digg

David Reber

@davidpreber

#AIsafety, interpretability, and causality. PhD student in CS @ #UChicago.

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New paper examines which parts of language-model rationales actually matter

A post uses an API-price forecast to argue that only contrasting forecasts can validate which points matter to its conclusion.

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6 Sources, 16d ago, updated 16d ago

Flowchart. One forecasting question, whether top-model API prices halve by 2027, fans out into 30 forecasts from Claude Opus 5.5, ranging 7-15% yes. Pairs of forecasts are contrasted, each pair yielding crux questions. Paraphrases are merged into a column of 86 cruxes. Headline: cruxes are properties of the distribution of forecasts, not of any one forecast.

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