Middle East Report

James discusses the US-Iranian talks, the Saudi-United Arab Emirates conflict, and the killing in Libya of Seif al-Islam on Radio Islam.

To watch the video or listen to the podcast,  go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/middle-east-report-a9d

Transcript

[Anchor] James M. Dorsey is an award-winning scholar and journalist with a different perspective on the Middle East and a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore. James, thank you very much for your time and welcome to Radio Islam International.

[James M. Dorsey] Always a pleasure to be with you.

[Anchor] Let's look at the first story this morning, James. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has some advice for the US negotiators in advance of today's US-Iranian talks in Oman, and this is aimed at avoiding a military conflagration that could spark a regional war in the Middle East.

[James M. Dorsey] The United States and Iran can't even agree on what the talks in Oman are about. Iran says it will only talk about its nuclear programme, while the United States insists on also discussing curbs on Iran's ballistic missiles, a halt to its support for Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, and Iraqi Shiite groups, and the release of thousands of anti-regime protesters who were arrested. The Turkish Foreign Minister has essentially proposed a compromise by advising the US to tackle one contentious issue at a time, rather than seek a package deal that addresses all US demands, starting with the nuclear programme.

That may be one reason that Iran insisted that the talks, originally scheduled to be held in Istanbul, be moved to Oman. For now, the gap between the US and Iranian positions is wide. Even if the US were to take the Turkish Minister's advice, the US demands that Iran drop its demand to enrich uranium on its soil, within given limits, and hand over whatever highly enriched uranium it possesses, demands Iran rejects.

Even so, the nuclear issue offers the most immediate opportunity for a face-saving compromise, without which a military conflagration seems almost inevitable.

[Anchor] A US military intervention in Iran doesn't just risk exposing Gulf states and Israel to Iranian retaliation. It also raises the spectre of regional wars pulling over into the Caucasus.

[James M. Dorsey] With no US or Israeli targets within its borders, Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel and US military bases in the Middle East, a threat directed at Gulf states and Israel rather than NATO member Turkey. While Iran is unlikely to attack Turkey's Incirlik air base that hosts US forces, an uptick of ethnic nationalism, particularly among Azeris, a Turkic group who account for up to a quarter of the Iranian population, could draw Iran's neighbours, Turkey and Azerbaijan, into a wider regional conflict. Militant supporters of Israel and the United States appear willing to run the risk.

They advocate a US targeting of Azeri units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, or IRGC, which they describe as the guards most brutal. The risk of Azeri and Turkish involvement in a US military conflagration with Iran is heightened by past US and Israeli support for ethnic insurgents in the country and Israel's belief that the fracturing of neighbour and enemy states enhances its security, a school of thought that resonates with some inside the Washington Beltway.

[Anchor] James, Iran is not the only flashpoint that could rewrite the Middle East geopolitical map. So could the widening rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

[James M. Dorsey] The Saudi-UAE rift is more than a fight for regional dominance between two Gulf states, battling it out in Yemen, since the kingdom last December forced the Emiratis to withdraw from the divided, war-ravaged country. It is a battle that ranges from Somalia and the Horn of Africa to Libya and North Africa, with erstwhile UAE-backed parties hedging their bets, if not changing sides. Somalia last month cancelled all bilateral agreements with the UAE after Israel became the first state in 34 years to recognise the breakaway territory of Somaliland.

Similarly, Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan and is cuddling up to Turkey with this week's visit to the kingdom by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The UAE hopes to conclude a similar defence deal with India, Pakistan's nuclear-armed arch-rival. In a vicious war of words, the Saudi media and pundits accuse the UAE of being Israel's Trojan horse in the region and promoting chaos with its support for secessionist and rebel forces in the greater Middle East.

Interestingly, it is Israeli and pro-Israeli voices that are leading the pro-Emirati response.

[Anchor] Libya has emerged as the latest Saudi-UAE battleground with the killing of Saif al-Islam, the son of toppled Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and rebel leader Khalifa Haftar's shifting alliances and quest for international legitimacy.

[James M. Dorsey] It remains unclear who killed Saif al-Islam, who became an influential politician, despite having been sentenced to death after the toppling of his father in 2011 and being wanted by the International Criminal Court. Saif al-Islam, who was believed to have UAE support, was a populist who posed a threat to both the internationally recognised government in Tripoli and rebel leader Khalifa Haftar. In Benghazi, who also enjoys Emirati backing, Saudi Arabia has wooed Haftar with funding, while Egypt has pressured him to halt the transit through Libya of Emirati weapons shipments to the rebel rapid support forces in Sudan.

In December, Pakistan agreed to sell Haftar Chinese-made JF-17 fighter planes as part of a $4.6 billion arms deal. Pakistan would not have sealed the deal without Saudi endorsement. United Nations has imposed an arms embargo on Libya.

It's unclear whether Pakistan obtained a UN exemption.

[Anchor] James, thank you very much for your time this morning. Much appreciated on Radio Islam International.

[James M. Dorsey]

Thank you for having me and have a good weekend.