"It is obvious...that this mode of instantaneous communication must inevitably become an instrument of immense power, to be wielded for good or for evil, as it shall be properly or improperly directed."

--Samuel Morse, to Congress, on the telegraph, 1838

How have people thought in advance about the potential effects of profound new technologies? As we grapple with the potential impact of AI, I've found it valuable to revisit past technologies, to compare predictions with actual subsequent outcomes. Over the coming weeks I'll cover the telegraph, radio, television, and more.

Morse recognized the profound implications of being able to contact anyone across the world nearly instantaneously. And he worried about what a company or the government might do with unchecked power over this technology.

In words that seem to foreshadow the DoW-Anthropic battle, he wrote to Congress:

"In the hands of a company of speculators, who should monopolize it for themselves, it might be the means of enriching the corporation at the expense of the bankruptcy of thousands; and even in the hands of Government alone, it might become a means of working vast mischief to the republic."

Morse then proposed a remarkable hybrid regulatory solution. The government would own and operate its own telegraph---so that companies could not interfere with the workings of government---while also licensing the right to operate telegraph networks to private companies in parallel. He thought this would balance the needs of the private sector and government.

Congress ultimately rejected Morse's solution, leading to privately provided telegraphs and, eventually thanks to network effects, the quasi-monopoly of Western Union. Was this better or worse than Morse's proposal? We'll never know.

What does this all mean for AI? I'm not sure yet. But just like Morse, we'll want to think about a wide variety of potential policy solutions for AI, lest the government or a frontier lab end up with undue amounts of power that allows them to work "vast mischief to the republic."