In early May, the best superforecasters predicted that, by the end of the year, the longest METR horizons would be 3-4 hours by 2027. In late May, Claude Mythos achieved that number.
11:08 AM · Jun 3, 2026 · 1.6K Views
Wharton's Ethan Mollick says Claude Mythos Preview hit a METR benchmark task horizon predicted to take until 2027
Critics argued the milestone shows bad forecasting, not rapid scaling.
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Ethan Mollick@emollick
In early May, the best superforecasters predicted that, by the end of the year, the longest METR 80% task horizons would reach 3-4 hours.
In late May, Claude Mythos achieved that number.
7hViews 32KLikes 398Bookmarks 76