What Does The Suleimani Killing Mean For The US And Iran? Here's What To Read
On Thursday, a US airstrike in Baghdad killed Qassim Suleimani, the head of Iran's Quds Force and one of the most powerful men in Iran and the Middle East. While some have heralded the strike as a justified response to the recent events at the US embassy in Iraq and to Suleimani's history of violence in the region, others argue that the killing will lead to a major escalation in conflict between the US and Iran, potentially even war. Here's what to read.
How The Situation Escalated
The New York Times has a quick breakdown of how tensions on the ground in Iraq have flared over the last week:
The Times also has video from the ground in the aftermath of the deadly strike.
Who Was Qassim Suleimani?
The New Yorker's Dexter Filkins wrote the definitive profile of the Iranian military leader back in 2013:
Suleimani took command of the Quds Force fifteen years ago, and in that time he has sought to reshape the Middle East in Iran's favor, working as a power broker and as a military force: assassinating rivals, arming allies, and, for most of a decade, directing a network of militant groups that killed hundreds of Americans in Iraq. The U.S. Department of the Treasury has sanctioned Suleimani for his role in supporting the Assad regime, and for abetting terrorism. And yet he has remained mostly invisible to the outside world, even as he runs agents and directs operations. "Suleimani is the single most powerful operative in the Middle East today," John Maguire, a former C.I.A. officer in Iraq, told me, "and no one's ever heard of him."
Suleimani And Iran's Proxies
The Washington Post lays out Iran's current proxy efforts in the Middle East — and how important Suleimani was to those efforts.
Iran's emphasis on developing proxy forces goes back to the 1979 revolution that deposed the American-backed shah and gave rise to the Islamic Republic. The Shiite theocracy sought to export its revolution and empower Shiite groups in the Middle East from the outset. Middle East Institute senior fellow Alex Vatanka called this expansionist ethos "part of [Iran's] DNA."
Many — though not all — of the groups Iran sponsors are Shiite. While ideology plays a role in Iran's foreign policy, experts say the regime's primary goal is to project power throughout the Middle East to counter American, Israeli and Saudi influence.
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How does Iran do this? Primarily through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, which Soleimani controlled until his death.
'A Turning Point'
At The Atlantic, Kathy Gilsinan and Mike Giglio stress how different the Suleimani killing is from strikes on Al Qaeda or ISIS leaders and how it marks a turning point in tensions between the US and Iran:
The killing of Iran's Quds Force commander, Qassem Soleimani, in a U.S. strike yesterday in Baghdad wasn't just the targeted assassination of a state military leader. It marked a dangerous new chapter in a roiling region Soleimani has helped shape for more than a decade, and moved the U.S. and Iran's cycle of proxy violence and sabotage closer to outright war.
Also at The Atlantic, Andrew Exum writes that the assassination "doesn't mean war, it will not lead to war, and it doesn't risk war. None of that. It is war." Speaking to Rachel Maddow, Brett McGurk — who worked on anti-ISIS efforts under Presidents Obama and Trump — said "we need to presume we are in a state of war with Iran."
Insight Into Obama And Bush's Handling Of Suleimani
Rep. Elise Slotkin — a Democratic Congresswoman and a former CIA analyst — gave some insight into how past administrations have approached Suleimani:
Iran Pledges Revenge
US personnel in Iraq are bracing for Iran's next move (and the US embassy in Iraq has advised all US citizens to leave the country "immediately"):
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vows revenge for the killing of the Commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Major General Qasem Soleimani in his first official reaction to the strike on Baghdad.
Khamenei said "harsh revenge awaits the criminals" involved in the killing of Soleimani and others, in a message to the nation published on his official website.
Reuters has a full roundup of reactions from Iranian public figures.
It's also possible that backlash will extend beyond the Middle East:
Over the decades, Hezbollah has pulled off some terrifying acts of violence far afield — perhaps most vividly, the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina that killed 85 people. It has also had some awkward failures, such as an alleged plot to blow up a Washington, D.C., restaurant frequented by the Saudi ambassador. How much should we worry about such attacks on U.S. soil? Far more than we did last week.
Iran analyst Karim Sadjadpour cautions that the "predictions of today mean little [and] the impact of Soleimani's death will take years to play out," but suggests Iran is not in a position to pursue a war:
Is This The End Of The Nuclear Deal?
Even if the situation does not continue to escalate towards a military confrontation, diplomats worry that the assassination marks the end of the nuclear deal between Iran and the West:
Many European capitals will fear that likely Iranian reprisals would deal a near-fatal blow to their efforts to keep the nuclear deal, and wider European relations with Iran, on life support until the possible election of a new, more strategic US president willing to keep diplomatic lines open to Tehran.Profile
In the short term, hardliners within Iran are likely to benefit politically from the US airstrike in parliamentary elections this spring. The killing also makes it certain Iran will take its fifth step away from the nuclear deal in the next few days.
How Strong Is Iran's Military?
In addition to a standing army of over 500,000, Iran has a sizable and powerful missile arsenal:
A US Defense Department report describes the country's missile forces as the largest in the Middle East, comprising mainly short-range and medium-range missiles. It also says Iran is testing space technology to allow it to develop inter-continental missiles, which can travel much further.
However, the long-range missile programme was stalled by Iran as part of its 2015 nuclear deal with foreign countries, according to the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank. But it added that it may have resumed, given the uncertainty surrounding that deal.
In any case, many targets in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf would be within range of Iran's current short and medium-range missiles, and possibly targets in Israel.
Was The Killing Legal?
Vox's Sean Illing talked to Heather Hurlburt, a national security expert at the New America think tank about the legality of the strike:
The most significant question has to do with whether the alleged threat from Suleimani and Iran was "imminent," meaning was it absolutely necessary to act when we did in order to neutralize an attack? If it was, the president has the authority to authorize a strike. If not, well, it's complicated.
How Democratic Presidential Candidates Have Responded
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said Thursday that President Donald Trump has "tossed a stick of dynamite into a tinderbox" with the targeted killing of Iran's top general in an airstrike at Baghdad's international airport.
The former vice president joined other Democratic White House hopefuls in criticizing Trump's order, saying it could leave the U.S. "on the brink of a major conflict across the Middle East."
