Everything You Should Know About Today's General Election In The UK
The United Kingdom held a snap general election on Thursday, and the results will determine who will lead the country as it pulls out of the European Union, responds to a recent spate of terrorism and negotiates its partnership with the US under Trump's leadership. Here's everything you need to know about the election — who's running, who's favored to win and what it all means.
Update 2: Conservatives Will Try To Form Coalition Government After Losing Outright Majority
May turned to Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, which won 10 seats (which, along with the Conservatives 318, would give the coalition more than the needed majority of 326):
A DUP source said: "We want there to be a government. We have worked well with May. The alternative is intolerable. For as long as Corbyn leads Labour, we will ensure there's a Tory PM." There has been no decision as yet on whether there will be a formal coalition between the Conservatives and the DUP or if they will operate on a "confidence and supply" arrangement – whereby the unionists would support a minority government on vital matters in return for some of their policies being enacted.
On social issues, including abortion and LGBT rights, the DUP is to the well to the right of the Conservatives. Notably, the party is also in favor of a softer Brexit:
[DUP leader Arlene Foster] has said: "No-one wants to see a 'hard' Brexit, what we want to see is a workable plan to leave the European Union, and that's what the national vote was about – therefore we need to get on with that. "However, we need to do it in a way that respects the specific circumstances of Northern Ireland, and, of course, our shared history and geography with the Republic of Ireland.
Update: Exit Polls Indicate That Conservatives Lead, But Without A Clear Majority
Looks like we might be facing a hung parliament! (Scroll down for an explanation of what a hung parliament is.)
There's still plenty of reason for caution — as Daily Kos politics writer Stephen Wolf points out, early exit polls aren't always accurate.
The Scottish National Party Says It Will Work To Make Corbyn Prime Minister
The First Minister said she would expect "all sorts of deals" between her party and Labour if the Tories lose their majority, amid concerns that Mr Corbyn will cave in to her demand for a second independence referendum. Although she ruled out a formal coalition, she said she would want the Nationalists to be part of a "progressive alternative to a Conservative government" that put Mr Corbyn in 10 Downing Street.
Here's what else you need to know about the election:
Theresa May Called The Early Election In April — In Order To Gain A Bigger Majority For The Conservatives
May, the Conservative politician who was not elected to prime minister but rather inherited the job when David Cameron stepped down following the Brexit vote last summer, called for the election less than two months ago. May had previously said she wouldn't call for an early vote, but her poll numbers looked good at the time, and she felt that a stronger majority in Parliament would help her during Brexit negotiations.
When she called the snap vote seven weeks ago — after insisting for months she had no intention of doing so — Mrs. May seemed unassailable. Twenty points ahead of her nearest contender in opinion polls, and with most of Britain's attack-dog tabloids cooing at her every move, the 60-year-old vicar's daughter appeared a perfect fit for the post-Brexit mood.
May has lost ground in polls since then, thanks in part to some unpopular policy proposals.
In recent weeks, May has lost popularity over some of her social care policies, including a so-called "dementia tax," which would make pensioners pay a bigger part of the cost of their care.
[ABC News]
She's also come under fire for cutting police jobs as Home Secretary between 2010 and 2016, a move that looks bad in light of recent terrorist attacks in Manchester and London.
Police Federation, representing rank-and-file officers, notably when she told their 2015 conference to "stop crying wolf" over cuts." data-reactid="24″ class="">Labour has attacked Ms May for cutting police numbers by 20,000 since 2010 and promised to recruit an extra 10,000. She had some bruising encounters with the Police Federation, representing rank-and-file officers, notably when she told their 2015 conference to "stop crying wolf" over cuts.
May also recently stated that fighting terrorism might require changing human rights laws, which… seems bad?
Polls Have Tightened Between May And Her Chief Rival, Jeremy Corbyn
Corbyn, the Labour candidate, has been compared to Bernie Sanders thanks to his progressive, populist message. But he's also come under fire for ties to the Irish Republican Army and positive statements about Hamas and Hezbollah.
The bruising seven-week campaign has seen the Conservatives attack Corbyn and his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, for their previous dealings with people associated with the IRA, branding them soft on terror and claiming their tax-and-spend manifesto depends on a "magic money tree."
Jeremy Corbyn has told MPs investigating accusations of antisemitism in the Labour party that he regrets once calling members of Hamas and Hezbollah "friends"…
Corbyn also expressed regret at his choice of words at a press conference launching an internal party report into antisemitism last week, which led to disputed claims he was drawing a parallel between Israel and Islamic State.
Corbyn has steadily gained in the polls against May over the weeks.
An average of opinions polls published by the Economist shows the Conservative Party leading with 44 percent of voters' support to Labour's 36 percent, but support for the Labour Party has been rising steadily since April — by some 10 points, according to the average.
[ABC News]
And the most recent poll actually gives Corbyn a three-point lead over May.
The survey puts Labour on 41.3 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives at 38.5 per cent, making the final result too close to call because the difference falls within the 3.2 per cent margin of error.
[Wired]
There are also several candidates for prime minster from small parties, none of whom has a realistic chance of winning, unless…
There Is A Slight But Real Possibility Of A 'Hung Parliament'
The way parliamentary elections work is that everyone votes for their local member of parliament, who is also a proxy for his or her party's candidate for prime minister. The party that ends up with a majority of seats in the House of Commons also wins the prime ministership. If no party ends up with a majority, then the parties have to form alliances based on their policy interests to form a coalition government. During negotiations to form a coalition government, the parties also figure out who gets to be prime minister.
This scenario is still a fairly unlikely one with polls where they are, but it is definitely possible. Depending on which is the largest party (most likely the Conservatives) and the other numbers, the best (if slim) chance of forming a government could be Labour, SNP, and possibly the Liberal Democrats reneging on their pre-election promises and coming to some (formal or informal) arrangement. If they don't manage that, this could even result in a second 2017 general election. Ooof.
[BuzzFeed]
To get a sense of various possible scenarios if no party gains a majority — and also a sense of how complicated British politics are — read the New Statesman's great explainer on the topic.
Results Will Begin Trickling In Around 5 PM EDT
Although Brits have to stay up all night to find out who their next prime minister, Americans will likely know before bedtime. The results of a national exit poll will be announced at 10 p.m. GMT (5 p.m. EDT).
The exit poll will be published at 10pm on Thursday and will give an early indication of the result based on a survey of how people voted.
The results of the past four elections have all been correctly predicted by the exit polls…
Broadcasters and newspapers will always "call" the election before the winner is declared officially… This is likely to be in the early hours of the morning if there's a clear victory and one party gets that all important House of Commons majority of 326 seats.
