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123 Comments
- inactive, on 10/19/2007, -4/+33Says the digger with the windows avatar
- atdigg, on 10/19/2007, -1/+25I think the most of the stats are wrong, there's no way to account for people who buy a Windows machine and replace the system with Linux or the ones that dual boot Linux and Windows, I think Linux users must be around 5% or so but in any case even if they are only 1% it's still millions of them.
But most importantly is not how many people use it it's the fact that Linux is free and is going to protect the freedom of its users. I personally don't need a Linux that's popular, but doesn't protect my freedoms. So everytime I see a silly post like "what Linux need to do to be popular" I cringe, the issue is "what Linux needs to do to remain a freedom enhancer" that's the only thing that matters. - Sketchcast, on 10/19/2007, -0/+14Schools nation-wide in India and Russia are soon to be moving to GNU/Linux, the Japanese are investing heavily in a home-grown distro for government and educational use, and South America is an emerging tech market that has embraced the free software ethic. It's only a matter of time before the Linux seat count explodes outside of North America.
- lazyrussian, on 10/19/2007, -3/+17He's a troll - look at his digg patterns.
- thcobbs, on 10/17/2007, -8/+20Yawn..........
I like Linux a lot, but this fanboy-ism needs to stop. It just makes you look dumb.
Is linux a player? yes.
Will linux be a major player? yea, but its gonna take a LONG time. - ArrakisDune, on 10/17/2007, -5/+15Now out of that "7%", take away what has been OEM (ie. bundled with the machine when it was purchased), and the pirated copies that people are using.
The number of people who have gone out and brought Vista as a Retail / OEM version for a current system is so low, even MS has started to worry : http://uk.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNewsUS/idUK ... - arjie, on 10/17/2007, -1/+10Hence the 2014. You know, year of the linux desktop and all :) I think that's long enough though. We'll make it.
- geoken, on 10/19/2007, -5/+13This is a good strategy. Rather than saying [current year] or [current year+1] will be the year of Linux they're saying [current year + i] will be the year of Linux. As long as i is enough time for everyone to forget your claims you'll never be wrong.
- Gavagai80, on 10/16/2007, -1/+8It's hardly bash, the object oriented approach and other features make it relatively innovative for something coming out of Redmond.
- Sifter, on 10/17/2007, -8/+15Fake Steve recently had a post up about a prediction made in 2004 that in 3 years Linux would overtake OSX and be on its way to desktop dominance. "Well, it's been three years. I'm not sure what to say. Maybe we should wait another hundred years and see if this prediction comes true." (Full piece here: http://fakesteve.blogspot.com/2007/10/hello-my-nam ... Still, nice story description. An "echo breeds incredible power within itself"? That sounds awesome.
- tybris, on 10/17/2007, -4/+11Extrapolating may be the single worst technique for predicting the future.
- Gavagai80, on 10/17/2007, -2/+9But that's where 2014 becomes unsafe, somebody in 7 years is sure to stumble on this story and complain about the bad prediction. Personally I'm calling 2087 The Year of Linux on the Desktop (TM), because I'm reasonably sure I won't be alive to field complaints.
- krinn, on 10/17/2007, -2/+8Well, the server is already dead, but I assume the argument goes something like this... If Linux use doubles every year then usage will be like so:
2008 - 1%
2009 - 2%
2010 - 4%
2011 - 8%
2012 - 16%
2013 - 32%
2014 - 64%
This is not realistic. Most people only switch operating systems when they buy a new computer and this limits growth to approximately 20% per year. At least that was the case with XP.
Of course if Linux use ever increased by 20%, Microsoft would be totally screwed since it would take away most of their windows-licensing revenue. So if you believe this "Linux doubles every year" theory, then Microsoft goes bankrupt around 2013... - whataboutdave, on 10/17/2007, -1/+7I'm using Linux on one of my main boxes. Does that mean you have DN:F somewhere? Can I play.
- TheHydrogens, on 10/17/2007, -1/+7Damn crafty Mayans and their calendar....
- raublekick, on 10/17/2007, -0/+6I think you missed the point. The point of (GNU/)Linux is freedom to the user. That goal has been pretty damn well achieved. Market share is a nice side effect of the idealism, but it's not the primary goal of RMS or the FSF (maybe not for people like Linus or ESR, but they didn't found GNU).
It doesn't matter if Linux has 1% of the market share or 100% of the market share as long as it's allowed to exist. And exist it has. To some people it's done better than commercial operating systems, which is great.
Even if you think Windows or OS X is better, and even if you are fine with DRM and getting locked into software products, the option is still there to move to Linux.
THAT is what matters. You are right, the world doesn't come crashing down in an all closed-source world. But at least with FLOSS / Open Source software there is an option IF YOU WANT IT. As long as this option exists, it makes things like DRM and product lock-in look less desirable. - burty89, on 10/17/2007, -1/+7Well, no, because you can go download whichever distro you prefer right now if you wish to.
- ubergeek09, on 10/17/2007, -0/+5Wow your ignorant, you do realize most of those ideas were on Linux first.
- jestin, on 10/17/2007, -1/+6I don't know about Apple being concerned with linux, but they certainly DO NOT embrace open source software. They use BSD as their kernel, but don't recontribute, they buy up CUPS so that they can close it if they like, and they allow absolutely no third party development on their handheld devices. This is not exactly "ebracing" open source.
- atdigg, on 10/17/2007, -1/+6I actually don't agree with all the ideas of Stallman. Don't know if you noticed... I used the term "Linux" not "GNU/Linux" for instance...
- geehossiphats, on 10/17/2007, -0/+5microsoft can't crush what they can't buy.
- inactive, on 10/17/2007, -0/+4You either don't understand what a monopoly is, or you don't understand what Linux is.
- drakethegreat, on 10/17/2007, -2/+6As I've mentioned in previous articles. If Linux ever takes over it won't happen overnight. Thats simply because Operating Systems for home computers (since thats what we are really talking about, PCs) is established as a market already with a market leader which is Microsoft. You can't simply switch people overnight since they already own it. So don't look at it like how Windows came in overnight or the iPod, those were new markets at the time.
- jdhore1, on 10/16/2007, -3/+72 things:
1. Yeah, Powershell is basically a stripped down bash.
2. Microsoft's first OS was *nix based...It was called Xenix...Then they went on and created Windows...Could we possibly be coming full circle? - thomashauk, on 10/16/2007, -0/+4Hmm the main thing stunting Linux's growth is windows "power users"
- etx313, on 10/17/2007, -7/+11Too bad the world is gonna end in 2012! Linux can never win :(
- GMorgan, on 10/17/2007, -1/+5Nobody sane denies it will take time. I'm more interested in open standards in the short term, right now we need to make sure we can achieve interoperability with other platforms. Of course MS will fight that tooth and nail.
- nalfeo, on 10/17/2007, -0/+4How about Netscape? Their tactics might have cost them billions and a lot of bad PR (Antitrust legislation, and such), but they still did manage to crush the competition. Now, the same kind of strategy won't work on Linux or Firefox today, but MS has shown in the past that it can, if it find a way, destroy something without having to buy it outright.
- meanfish, on 10/17/2007, -0/+4And just which company do you expect to have a monopoly?
- daftman, on 10/19/2007, -0/+4@Commodus
If you are not using Linux for the open source and freedom, then you are using it for the wrong reason. If you want to look for a zero-cost windows alternatives then try bittorent.
GPL is what brought Linux into existence in the first place. Not cheap leeches who just want to try something different than Windows to feel superior. - FyberOptic, on 10/17/2007, -4/+8lol @ these kinds of stories. This is no different than Mac users thinking one day Apple will take the top spot. Just enjoy what you've got instead of pretending it's going anywhere. Buried for inaccurate, and also for use of the stupidly Stallmanized "GNU/Linux" in title instead of just "Linux".
- Axed33, on 10/16/2007, -0/+3By your use of us/we it is clear you work for Apple, thus your opinion is biased and irrelevant.
- Kamujin, on 10/17/2007, -0/+3Apple embraces Open Source so long as its a one way street.
If Apple wins, even Linux won't run on anything but crApple made hardware. - lotu, on 10/17/2007, -0/+3Also you might want to mention
2015 - 128%
2016 - 256%
2017 - 512%
2018 - 1024%
Go Linux - eudemo, on 10/16/2007, -1/+4In related news, my cousin is growing five centimeters a year. When he will retire, he will be 3 meters taller than I!!
- Izacus, on 10/17/2007, -1/+4Not to mention, they're not counting the fact that Microsoft wont just roll-over and die willingly. They'll fight back and they'll use low hits. Yelling "OMG, Microsoft is evil" on forums/digg won't help that, getting some serious businessmen into the Linux world to market the thing will.
Just read your history... alot of naive companies and projects died because they underestimated Microsoft... Linux community should not do so. - Oldsmobile, on 10/17/2007, -5/+8This is almost as exiting as when RON PAUL started polling 4%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I mean up from about 1%, that means he QUADRUPLED his support!!! YEEHAA, RON PAUL REVOLUTION '08!!!
- 1310nm, on 10/19/2007, -3/+6Exactly. The only reason most people have Vista is because they bought a new PC and went, "Ooh, shiny!". Shortly afterward, they discover how ridiculous it is to use and ask how they can get Windows XP back on their computers. Isn't it strange that shortly after the Vista release, CompUSA already had pricing schemes for "downgrading" to XP on new machines? I had a client do a couple of Sony VAIOs that way, they have a Vista coupon that will probably never be used.
- geehossiphats, on 10/17/2007, -0/+3uhhh,mac's OS is UNIX based. So actually, Mac's piggyback on UNIX OS's, fan-boy.
- sirhomer, on 10/16/2007, -0/+3Duke Nukem Forever runs on Linux. :)
- blueskybox, on 10/16/2007, -0/+2Is there another technique?
- libervisco, on 10/19/2007, -0/+2I mostly agree, but I also believe that mass adoption matters too. Why? It is a natural thing for those who found something that empowers them to share the experience with others and encourage them to try it out and possibly switch. And this then has some great potential side effects. More people can relate to you. More people can understand why do you love this Free Software so much and, after all, more people end up empowered by the freedom they experience with it.
This is why I care about the popularity of GNU/Linux. It enables us to tell the world, the increasing portion of it, that there is a better way. Unfortunately most people simply don't know this. If they really did, many would already be using Free Software. A lot of digg users here know and can make some kinds of comments on it, but digg is not the world. And most people in the world haven't even got a chance to evaluate this option yet.
So yes, freedom and its preservation is what matters most, but it just can't hurt to spread this as far and wide as possible.
Cheers - lyzz, on 10/16/2007, -2/+4The only open source project that Apple contributes to are ones that benefit itself. Using KHTML most likely saved them tons of money. Linux is a competitor to Apple. A very minor one.
- monikerd, on 10/17/2007, -0/+2I'm an avid linux user/(developer) but I think everybody has had it with anouncements of Linux' future reign on the desktop.
Linux is already furfilling an important role of keeping the commercial OS' from going entirely mad. Imagine a world with only propriatory solutions...
That said, there sure are areas where commercial software has strong points, where there are wholes in the open world, and vice versa. So we'll all have to learn to live with the fact that there are several oses out there. Create some true open standards, fight vendor lock in. Crazy pattents. And we'll all live happily ever after.
Linux appears to be picking up momentum, but lets not get too excited just yet. And just keep working on making it work better. It's our operating system. wiii - UKsHaDoW, on 10/17/2007, -0/+2You can store anything in a string. I can store a picture in a string. I can store pretty much anything in a string. as long the string is dymanic in size. You can store objects in a string, by doing a cast. As long as the app receiving it knows what its receiving it can cast it back to whatever, it would probably need a header, and method functions do acutally do something with a object though. Remember a variable is just memory, theres no difference a int or char. Just size. Although I don't recommend transferring any type of data as a string. Its not safe. Because the program might handle as something else and crash.
- derekjgo, on 10/17/2007, -1/+3This is BS statistics. The variance is huge with a small number. I still think it is random and unpredictable.
- chrismgtis, on 10/16/2007, -0/+2If DOS was before your time, you don't really have the experience to say Linux is better (much like 99.9% of the Digg community).
- ubergeek09, on 10/17/2007, -0/+2Not a suprise, why wouldn't you want a free open source operating system, that doesn't spy on you..
- Ademan, on 10/17/2007, -0/+2Actually iirc several other groups came to the same conclusion separately, which I think is interesting. Probably has more to do with astronomy than the end of the world though...
- krinn, on 10/16/2007, -0/+2Original article, not blog link:
http://www.linuxplanet.com/linuxplanet/reports/642 ... -
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