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- billricardi, on 06/25/2009, -5/+63To make a very long story short:
He saves about 3 grand a year for a 38K investment. Figure tax breaks and cost hikes will track maintainability factors, and you have a break even of 12.5 years. 20 year profit: 22K.
If he had invested the 38K in a very low risk 20 year commitment, he would have done somewhat better. A T-Bill investment at 4.4% that rolled interest into an ING high yield savings would have made him around 50K.
If he was willing to take on some uninsured risk for a yield of around 6.5% compounded yearly after brokerage fees, he would make almost exactly 100K.
On the up side, the infrastructure that his house has may have increased it's base value (the panels themselves will depreciate as they degrade, so we can only look at the infrastructure). If it has that should mitigate some of his virtual loss. Assuming an addition of 10K to his current home's value at a conservative 4% market appreciation, and he made another 12K in the 20 year term.
But he's happy, so is his wife, and he's eaten into his carbon impact. So good on him. - niradg, on 06/26/2009, -0/+268%? I hope you failed your senior thesis, because there is no investment that gets 8% guaranteed. Especially in this market climate.
- Plopfish, on 06/26/2009, -0/+25$38K turns into $177K after 20 years with 8% compounded interest. However, I defy you to find an investment that guarantees 8% returns year over year.
- jtf042, on 06/26/2009, -3/+17For the first commenters, don't be so dense. I'm pretty sure nobody buys a solar panel system for their home because they think it's the best way to invest Forty thousand dollars
- DaviDTC, on 06/26/2009, -1/+13Actually at 8% interest rate you would of lost all your money cause that interest rate was only possible with Madoff
- GaltShrugged, on 06/24/2009, -12/+23" I'm saving money, but I also sank around $38,000 into the system."
lol. If I wasn't so lazy, I'd do a 38,000 at 8% ROI for 20 years and do the savings. But since I already did it in my senior thesis, I'll just let you know you lost money. Oh and that doesn't include the repairs you'll have to do over the years and loss of efficiency. - Nacon, on 06/26/2009, -1/+10So what if it takes 5 years to compensate the carbon cost for the panels? They produce power for 25 years.
- Sagags, on 06/26/2009, -2/+8Depends on how you define "worth it"
Financially, most likely no, but if you're more concerned with your impact on the planet than yea it is. - Flagg3, on 06/26/2009, -0/+6People might take you seriously if you didn't exaggerate the facts to try to make your point sound better.
Last I checked $3,000 is not a few hundred.
I'm not arguing that it's a worthwhile investment, but you don't have much credibility when you fudge the numbers to make a point. - eatsushi, on 06/26/2009, -0/+6Just call me when they finally produce a solar powered air conditioning unit that's affordable.
- Swivelstick, on 06/26/2009, -2/+7Using that logic people would never upgrade their car, computer et al...
- KMye, on 06/24/2009, -3/+7Beat me to it. I'm a fan of solar in general, and if people can afford it, and they want to, then good for them. But whenever they do the numbers, they ALWAYS forget about what their sunk money could have been doing if not invested in the panels...
- SpeedSteamBoat, on 06/26/2009, -1/+5Even assuming the number you pulled out of your ass is accurate and it takes 5 years to offset the carbon from installation, that's still doing a lot better than never offsetting any carbon at all.
Solar potential can only be realized on a massive scale?
Try this for massive scale: The roof off every house in the country. - Flagg3, on 06/26/2009, -0/+4Sorry Ralph Kramden, some of us live in houses, in large cities, and we actually have modern appliances.
- Flagg3, on 06/26/2009, -1/+5Want to take a guess how much the S&P 500 has increased in the past 10 years?
2-Jul-99 1,316.27 1,391.22 1,316.27 1,391.22
19-Jun-09 942.45 942.45 903.78 921.23
Not exactly what I'd call solid growth... - Moralogic, on 06/26/2009, -0/+4It is basically investing $40,000, to increase your house value by $60,000, and save $3,000 a year ($250/mo) in electric bills. Lets add another value in there... The average American lives in the same house for 15-25 years, so lets say 20 years. So $60,000 savings over the time living in that house.
$60,000 Home Value Increase
-$40,000 Cost
-------------
$20,000 Sub Total
+$60,000 From savings over 20 years
-------------
$80,000 Net Total in Savings and House Value increase. - TheStrongForce, on 06/26/2009, -0/+4Great analysis with graphs and numbers. Definitely worth a read to get a grasp of the facts.
- DaviDTC, on 06/26/2009, -1/+4Luckily people always look at their financial future 100 years ahead of time and not 5,10, or 20 years.
- MWeather, on 06/26/2009, -0/+3Some of us turn those appliances off occasionally.
- Duffle, on 06/26/2009, -2/+5I wonder what would've happened had he thrown a windmill into the mix.
- SpiffyStiffy, on 06/26/2009, -1/+42 words: self sufficient
- Staggx, on 06/26/2009, -0/+3You know what, you need to invest in it. It will pay off eventually, no matter what, unless the sun explodes. Your kids kids will have a great return on investment, or the people that buy the house. We need this to become more independent of oil, and its definitely possible.
- DirtyVicar, on 06/26/2009, -1/+4If you're a real Texan, you use the sun for iced tea and burning fireants, not for those communist hippie solar panels.
- asskicker32, on 06/26/2009, -0/+3I installed one in my toilet. I flush the toilet to get hte lights working.
- HerbSolo, on 06/26/2009, -0/+3I don't think it's a good investment either, but your math is way off. First of all, 8% is fairly optimistic, if you don't want to risk losses, I'd say 4-5% is far more realistic. - Now you'd have to subtract his yearly savings from the interest. According to his numbers he's saving $ 2970 a year.
5 % of his investment are 1900, so he's actually losing 1000$ a year.
With the maintenance cost and efficiency loss over the years added, it still seems to be a bad investment, but only if your energy consumption is stalling and the prices are stable (both of which aren't realistic) - SpiffyStiffy, on 06/26/2009, -3/+6paying electric bills?
- gtrob, on 06/26/2009, -1/+4One extremely neglected issue is the materials necessary to create PV solar panels. There is a lot of mining for metals, namely copper, which means a lot of hidden carbon emissions that make solar far worse than wind and nuclear, but still far better than fossil fuels. Regardless, as demonstrated in this article, the economic costs are not even close to currently mainstream electricity generation methods.
A combination of wind, concentrated solar, and nuclear will most certainly be our future. And maybe in 50+ years, fusion. - OwenKellogg, on 06/26/2009, -2/+5Yes... the loss of efficiency is the big one. Those panels will be producing significantly less power in 10 years than they are producing now.
- JitMaster, on 06/26/2009, -2/+5Just disappearing into the stock market.
- blackkbot, on 06/26/2009, -0/+3In Austin it was 107 today. My shed in my backyard actually caught on fire in the middle of the night because it set off some bullets. I literally dodged a bullet when I heard the bullets going off and called the fire department.
- Moralogic, on 06/26/2009, -0/+3"A solar electric system increases home value by $20,000 for each $1,000 in annual reduced operating costs."
- Appraisal Institute
So if I am reading that right, doesn't that mean that since he is saving $3,000 a year, that he will get $60,000 back on home resale? - p3ngwin, on 06/26/2009, -5/+7it's not about saving money. it's about saving other resources more valuable.
if all you look at is the $$$, then you are blindly missing the greater picture. - Tarnum, on 06/26/2009, -0/+2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qanat#Cooling
/s :) - JoeHague, on 06/26/2009, -0/+2I've read hydro-electric is the way to go/
- wpennb, on 06/26/2009, -1/+3Here in my state in Australia, the Govt gives you a rebate of 3.8 times the value of the energy you produce, plus a bunch of cash upfront. It makes for a worthwhile investment. The first kilowatt is virtually free.
- Moralogic, on 06/26/2009, -0/+2Watermill!
- specialbuddy1, on 06/26/2009, -1/+3I haven't payed a electricity bill for a while but two years ago I was paying 30-60 a year ago. What the hell is this guy using?
- erhanaltay, on 06/26/2009, -0/+2I pay ~$175 a month for electricity alone but I have about a dozen computer humming 24/7
- JoeHague, on 06/26/2009, -0/+2I'm not arguing that panels do not offset carbon, I'm simply pointing out that for 38k, they're a number of green technologies that are more practical, economically and ecologically. The problem with solar panels is that they are too expensive, and they do very, very little to offset even one persons carbon footprint.
A solar panel on the roof of every house in the country is idiotic. In this economic climate most people cannot afford to make such an expensive investment in something with such a poor return. Also, most of the country does not receive enough sunlight throughout the year to be economically viable. A power plant in the Sonoran Desert would be much more logical/ - TechyLah, on 06/26/2009, -0/+2Very nice article; I appreciate it, but...No go.
If instead of spending that $38k on solar you invested it, or perhaps payed off some 5% credit card (or mortgage), THAT would be giving you back $1900 a year in pure cash. Your "$3000 per year" is thus really only saving you $1100 per year! That's over 34 years until breakeven.
That's why everybody, including you, has to talk about the FEEL GOOD factor, which you can not put a price on.
I would love to find a good electricity solution. I live in Massachusetts, have a 60a 220v (that's 13 kw!) hot tub, my wife a 2 kw sauna, and a home addition with electric radiant floors enhancement (almost always off). Electric rates are going to soar, I believe, but....
You have to look at the financial truths really objectively. You don't want to pay out bigtime mainly for the "feelgood". I really do want a way to save on electricity, which I (obviously) LOVE to use.
Solar electric just doesn't cut it. I WISH it did. Really!
Thank you for the excellent, detailed, and well-written article.
Sunshine wise, be very grateful you live in California!
My tip: I bought 50 CFL bulbs for 0.33 each at Ace! Brighter and they use 1/5 the energy!
You can still get them - limit 6 per customer per day - JantjePietje, on 06/27/2009, -1/+325-30 years
- JantjePietje, on 06/27/2009, -0/+2Because uranium doesn't need mining? and where are windmills and reactors built from exactly?
- Stumpie2012, on 06/26/2009, -0/+2Not even in a GREAT market climate.
- vizerei, on 06/26/2009, -1/+3Thanks for the breakdown, now I know where I can put all that money I'm not getting from unemployment :(
- MWeather, on 06/26/2009, -0/+2Yeah, but the Feds gets pissed when you put a nuke plant on your roof.
- anaswasi, on 06/26/2009, -0/+2modern appliances use far less energy than 80s-90s appliances.
- MacEnvy, on 06/26/2009, -0/+1I heard North Korea also eats wheat. See how far it got them ...
Your argument is nonsensical. - nepidae, on 06/26/2009, -0/+1The cost of doing stuff like this will go down as more people do it though.
- JoeHague, on 06/26/2009, -4/+5Not only is it a waste of money- but it probably takes 5 years just to offset the carbon from the manufacturing and installation. Home solar units like these are more self-satisfaction than sell-sufficient/
Bottom line- You would save more on heating and cooling and do more for the environment with a green roof, solar potential can only be realized on a massive scale. That is unless the cost is dramatically reduced/ - Scanner, on 06/26/2009, -0/+1Isn't this where you look at expanding the system a bit to cover the useage (and sell the extra back) for as many months as possible?
He's so close to breaking even during the summer months why not just add a couple more pannels to push it over the top. -
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