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- slugicide, on 08/19/2008, -3/+29tl;dr:
Israeli Steve Jobs-type guy decides to change the car game with a plan to sell cheap electric cars that you fill up with electricity like you fill up minutes on your phone--plans or pay-as-you-go. Calls it Better Place. Lots of money is raised. Renault, NEC, Israel, Denmark are in, Hawaii wants some of it, too. No details on the operating system for the car and no cars built yet. - baithe, on 08/19/2008, -0/+24Can I hire you to do that for every story?
- adhavan87, on 08/19/2008, -1/+19Awesome article!
- ddgromit, on 08/19/2008, -0/+16Long but worth the read. Let's hope this guy is not all talk.
- BuckNutty, on 08/19/2008, -0/+14At this stage of the game, anyone who has a 12 step electric plan to help us get rid of the oil shakes is worth listening to.
- lucy22, on 08/19/2008, -1/+10I like his idea of reducing our dependence on oil. Hope it works.
- sharternarter, on 08/19/2008, -1/+9Sounds like the dude describing him has a little crush....
- TVarmy, on 08/19/2008, -0/+7It's pretty much accepted by both the DOT and major utility companies that tonight, we could support up to 20 million EVs charging at night. And of course, people aren't going to buy them all at once, so the grid scales up in proportion.
There are problems with EVs, but I think they're definitely the future. What other vehicle has so many fuel choices? Considering that most people change cars in 6-10 years, I'd say we aren't going to have a huge influx of new EVs once a good one hits the market.
Also, I suspect that the car's computer would check prices from the power company (perhaps via WiFi) to see if it's a peak time or not. If the grid can't handle another car, the car won't charge because the market says so. - ka2err, on 08/19/2008, -0/+6> operating range of 300 miles
> with fast fill-up (10 min.)
Thats the wrong approach for me.
I'd need a comfortable car with a range of about 100KM and a recharge time of less than a work day (maybe even 3.5 hours) to drive to the office if public transport does not do it.
I'd take a rental / carsharing-car for the very few days of the year when this specs are to weak.
The problem is that most people (in old Europe) want a car with specs that they only need 1/20th of the year, so nobody builds those cars that fit 19/20th of the time.
The situation may be different in huge, less densely inhabitated countries.
(And I'd love a 100KM range 40hp electric motorcycle. A decent one like BMW builds.) - Nerys, on 08/19/2008, -0/+6Electric cars have sufficient range. ALL we need is 150 miles range.
Electric cars will be a net ZERO load on the electric grid.
Electric cars can easily contain all the creature comforts of a normal car.
There is only one reason people DEMAND the EV be as good as the GAS car. Thats because it costs as much if not MORE than the Gas car.
This price is Manufactured and has no basis in reality. There is NO reason at all they can not put a $12k electric car on the road RIGHT NOW. They "choose" not to and use patents to enforce this. The Tesla Roadster costs $100k because they were forced to use over 6800 batteries to make the thing work. The "good" batteries (nimh) are locked up in a patent.
SO let me expand my points above.
If the electric car was CHEAP people would be less concerned about range. IE 90% of our travels are well under 150 miles. I have a 55mile commute to work and I would be satisfied with a 70mile range (I can recharge at work)
Which brings us to Price. at $12k or less an electric car is FREE For the average american. Since nimh powered cars cost $1 of electricity to go 100miles roughly the cost per mile is insanely small. Add in that they are basically maintenance free and virtually everlasting and its a win win win for the people. Why is it free? well the monthly payment on a $12k loan is quite a bit smaller than the amount the average american currently spends in gasoline every month. IE ZERO dollars out of pocket. You just spend what your spending on gas right now and send it to the bank instead of chevron. Car is paid off in less than 4 years with NOTHING out of pocket each month that your not already spending right now.
Electrics will overload the grid? HOGWASH. $1 in electricity per 100 miles driven. IE less than 10,000 watts.
A small electric heater consumes more power than this. ALSO as we switch from Gas to Electric we will use LESS AND LESS electricity putting that gasoline in your tank (what you thought it got there via fairy dust?) I have no idea what the exact figures are but I would bet my lifes wages that the amount of electricity needed to put 5 gallons of gasoline in your car (100mile range at 20mpg) is greater than $1 in electricity.
I would even wager that it might be less than the electricity needed to put 2 gallons in your Prius (50mpg assumed)
SO what does this mean? the net load on the grid would go DOWN not UP as we switched to electric cars.
AND this ignores alternative energy. Nano Solar is making solar panels at 90cents a watt. Once they are selling to consumers at this price your car will be ZERO load on the grid at all and even a net positive load.
$1600 buys a grid tie in and $1000 in solar panels from Nano Solar. $2600 initial investment and now your car is 100% free to drive 100% zero load on the grid and 100% Clean.
You see that solar panel will produce and sell back to the utility MORE WATTS each month than you will consume driving and charging your electric car.
I do not care about the environmental footprint of the battery pack. Why? that nimh battery will last at least 250,000 miles maybe more. That electric motor will outlast YOU.
SO your telling me that your concerned about the Environmental Impact of that single battery compared to the environmental impact your gas engine transmission all your parts. The oil The Anti Freeze the PS Fluid the Tranny Fluid the etc.. etc.. etc.. that you will use in a gas car over a 250,000 mile life? Get real. Its apples to oranges in E Impact.
An ev is the closest we can get to ZERO E Impact short of not using transportation at all.
NOW lets talk about the IMPORTANT aspects of an EV Economy. The Economy.
An EV infrastructure could ERASE out economic woes and possibly even ELIMINATE unemployment.
Here is how. An example. UPS paid a million dollars to a software engineering firm to write some software for them. One purpose. Avoid left turns. #1 they take longer #2 they are more dangerous and #3 they use more gas.
In the FIRST YEAR of using this software they saved over THREE MILLION dollars in gasoline!
Wow you say? Irrelevant I say. Consider this. If they saved 3 million JUST avoiding left turns "JUST HOW MUCH MONEY" per year do they spend on gasoline! it has to be 10's if not 100's of billions of dollars.
NOW consider that we send over a trillion dollars a year to gasoline companies. IMAGINE if 99% of that money was infused BACK into out economy.
Just think about how MUCH of our money for ANYTHING goes to gasoline. Now imagine if it was ZERO.
The effect on out economy would be incredible! ANY company that ships anything would see a massive profit increase combined with lower prices Expansion would explode. AN EV infrastructure could possibly single handedly eliminate unemployment or get REALLY close to getting rid of it.
AN EV infrastructure has the potential to do something that has not been done since the late 1700's
Transfer a massive quantity of wealth and POWER back into the hands of the general population.
ONLY battery electric cars can do all this. ANY other alternative tech just changes the hands that the money goes to and power goes to to anyone EXCEPT the people.
I personally do NOT like this guys plan for electric cars. at $1000 a year I will be spending more than TWICE what I would spend on a purely I own it electric car and still MORE money than I was paying 10 years ago in gasoline. (10 years ago I was spending around $500 a year in gasoline compared to nearly $4000 now)
BUT his idea would get enough dollars into battery tech that eventually we would have what I want. PURELY consumer owned EV's so its not what I want but it will GET me to what I want eventually. The only real problem is that it maintains the myth that batteries are expensive so manufacturers could artificially keeps battery prices high.
BUT they all will have no choice in a few years. WE WILL have EV's
Chevron holds the patent we need for large format NIMH batteries and they refuse to license them. GM sold it to them via texaco over 10 years ago.
Consider they could sell these batteries for $4500 over TEN YEARS ago. Imagine how much they would cost today if they had stayed in production and continued development for the last 10 years. Just imagine.
Mercedes just announced that there line up will be PETROL FREE by 2015
Take a guess when the NIMH patent expires... - oag111, on 08/19/2008, -12/+18A good fantasy story. Where as it's likely some EV will find its way in
routine vehicle use it will clearly remain in the minority. Technology is
not even close to a usable vehicle model that provides matched driveability
in temperature from -20F to 125F, operating range of 300 miles with fast
fill-up (10 min.) without severely impacting battery life, includes cabin
comfort such as heat and air conditioning, and the list continues.
Additionally, the grid is not even close to supporting the demand required
for everyone to plug-in and generation capacity will never be replaced by
wind. I doubt that even a 20% wind generation capacity is even possible.
If one were honest the tax obligations required to even attempt the base model would make the cost per mile far exceed current cost per mile.
One important missed item is the chemical foot print that gets left off
competing new technology. Merely focusing on carbon is grossly miss
leading. New technology will have a new array of chemicals that are no where
near as easy to manage as CO2 and many are heavy metals. We need to evaluate
alternative technology on the merit of its entire chemical waste foot print.
Like Compact florescent bulb, the carbon is mitigatedby the significant
mercury risk.
Not even on the radar is truck transportation and represents approx 45% of
US fuel consumption. Be certain that at some point in very products life it
will move by truck. Its doubtful EV over the road trucks will ever happen.
The Mitsubishi MiEV, probably the closest to a production EV and only has a 93
mile range with driver only, requires 7 hr charge, the battery pack is
approx 800mm x 700mm . Far from 250 miles Shai's base line.
Consider this: A community of 76,000 could easily have 40,000 vehicles for 29,000
households. This means at night nearly 40,000 batteries will be plugged in
requiring 1.4 million amps at only 35 amps per battery. If local battery
exchange is available and assuming only a 20% contingency battery stock
where do you store 8,000 batteries. The space required is not a minor
problem assuming the battery is only 800mm x 700mm x 200mm.
Vehicle safety is not even addressed. There is a great fire risk with Li-Ion
batteries, especially in an accident. Then there is the real risk of
occupant and rescuer electrocution with battery packs that typically range
from 300 to 600 volts. Certainly disconnects are possible so long as it
remains intact in the accident!
Yes a nice SIFI.
Otto - slugicide, on 08/19/2008, -0/+6Very sobering. I was wondering about the so-called autOS. It seems it would take a rock-hard, military-grade Linux system to run things--a major project, but the article barely mentioned it. Also, what about network connectivity? Maybe in Israel they can keep the cars on the grid, but in the US?
- teknikk7, on 08/19/2008, -3/+8The writer seriously wants to f*ck this guy.
Too many of these comments, "Agassi, in a black leather jacket, a stiff blue-and-white button-down, and faded jeans"
However, I hope this comes to the US. I will be among the first to hack it. - Nateon, on 08/19/2008, -1/+6Do we actually see something like this taking off in America? Even with gas prices the way they are people are stubborn to actually change their ways and I doubt oil corporations will be very happy. The man has a great idea, but it's going to take a lot more for things to take off here in the States.
- neko6, on 08/19/2008, -0/+4Comment jacking to provide a video article on the subject, including the prototype in action:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmOW0z__AMI
There are numerous other videos on it, its been in the works for a few years now. - TVarmy, on 08/19/2008, -1/+5I don't think electric cars are that big a change. The big thing stopping people is initial investment, and this strategy may work.
- drizzlelicious, on 08/19/2008, -0/+3How would he prevent people from charging their cars themselves? Sounds quite hackable.
- neko6, on 08/19/2008, -0/+3Car prototype exists, see video here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmOW0z__AMI - Devilboy666, on 08/19/2008, -0/+3Slugicide for VP in 2008
- TVarmy, on 08/19/2008, -1/+4Love it or hate it, it'll take a lot to get drivers to give up their cars. The nice thing about hybrids and electric cars is that they don't idle and spew carbon dioxide while sitting still and doing basically nothing. Plus, efficient cars tend to be smaller so the roads will be less congested.
- EpicSelekta, on 08/19/2008, -1/+4Shai Agassi < Shai Hulud
- frazw, on 08/19/2008, -0/+3The tesla roadster has a range of 245 miles proving that the technology exists. Sure it may be expensive but that is simply a supply and demand issue, and if the grid owns the batteries this cost is largely irrelevant to the user.
The issue of fast fill up is dealt with by battery swap outs, and you don't need to store 8000 of them, at any one station you one need as many as can be swapped out in the length of time it takes to charge one. If we say it takes 7 hours to change and a user occupies the swap out point for around 5 minutes, not accounting for lulls in business that means only 84 batteries are needed at one station provided they can be simultaneously charged. By the time 84 swap outs have occurred the first battery will be ready to go again. Of course the actual number is likely to be far less than that since that would mean the station would be working flat out, and there wouldn't be enough cars to deplete a supply in the initial stages of the project. In fact 5 minutes to swap out a battery is perhaps over generous. We are also forgetting that the technology will march on regardless meaning new batteries requiring less time to charge or perhaps with greater storage would likely be released into the system too.
Such swap outs would only be required in rare circumstances in day to day use or on long journeys so your calculations are a bit mean. I'd suspect that the average community member will be charging overnight and travelling a small distance, to and from work and not requiring swap outs. For a 76,000 community I reckon 10 fuelling stations is more than adequate, in fact I live in a city in the UK with population of 70,000 and I can only think of eight. So if we go with 15 fuelling stations if each had two full capacity swapout stations then there would only need to be 2520 batteries spare. I grant you a lot but we are talking about these stations swapping out batteries 24/7 which wouldn't happen.
As for the toxicity of new technologies, this is inevitable and progress will not be made without it however once clean generation technology is established practices, and methods will improve, besides green generation is being rolled out anyway so it is at little extra cost to current plans.
As for safety I'm not saying that Li Ion batterys are strictly safe but remember petrol is a fire risk to and a more potent one - digghasnoethics, on 08/19/2008, -2/+5Nice half an idea.
Problem is there are big gaps in the model, and the model ain't too hot either. Where are all the new power stations going to come from to power this, and what are you going to power them with? Don't forget to factor their efficiencies into your calculation. How are you going to upgrade the grid to cope with the extra demand and who is going to pay for this? The usage profile will be very spiky for a start. What happens when these breakdown by the side of the road? Where are you going to get the Lithium from (yep, that's running out too) ? For all the silly VC money, how the hell would you ever fund a rollout sufficiently large to form a workable system AND get vehicle manufacturers to play ball AT THE SAME TIME.
As I said, lots of practical problems before you even get to the reluctance of US consumers to give up their trucks. - w3bsag3, on 08/21/2008, -0/+2Granted, Shai and Co are making a lot of things up as they go along. That's what happens when you introduce a radically disruptive change.
I think the goal that he has is about setting the standard of interoperability for batteries, the new generation intelligent plugs and EVs. Not proprietary at all. Anyone could join in on the fun and different vendors could cover each other plug-in and battery exchange stations. Sort of roaming agreements for electricity.
Good luck to them. At least they will have tried. There may be a thousand reasons why the whole thing will flop. If it does, maybe it will make it easier for those who follow.
Consider what's at stake: our very own freedom, democracy and, ultimately - independence.
Who was it who said: "The stone age did not end because they run out of stones". - Nerys, on 08/19/2008, -0/+2Consider that an electric car uses 1/6th the amount of energy to go 1 mile as a gas car (and this ignores regen alternative power etc..)
SO even if 100% of our power plants were "dirty" plants we would be spewing 1/6th the amount of crap into the air.
What else have we done to reduce emissions by such a large number? 83% reduction.!
Add in HOME solar power to offset the watts used and its suddenly 100% clean too. Oh and zero load on the grid too. - FlamingYak, on 08/19/2008, -0/+2Th!nk City, or the Miles XS500 Highway Speed Sedan, or the Aptera. The City takes awhile to charge, and the Miles is a bit more than you'd need, but both are great options. Screw the Tesla, these are the cars that will make a difference.
- Virgule, on 09/06/2008, -0/+1I wrote GM and I have been shocked by their stubborn stagnancy. They don't even WANT to consider new ways of doing things. They are either afraid of everything or they actually want to go the way of the dodo.
>_>
The customer will choose what is best for them but for that they need to be given a proper choice. - inactive, on 08/19/2008, -1/+2Let's start with getting ***** Americans out of the left lane, and using their signals. That would improve transportation in this country 300 percent.
- ParanoydAndroid, on 08/19/2008, -1/+2It appears to me that they've overlooked some things that're pretty big in my eyes:
1.) They calculate cost using the cost of electricity, and assuming the cost goes down as scale goes up, etc ...; But since this business is making money of the sale of electricity, they charge an additional few cents per kWh, raising the price - this leads into 2
2.) Lock down- I want a phone I can take to any company, I want universal standards, I want mobile internet to mean mobile internet, not "here's the 4 sites you can access for 10 dollars ... get 4 more for only an additional 5 per month." Similarly this car model requires that you get electricity from his charging stations (how else would they charge you?), what happens when you get stranded? The nearest gas station is only a mile away, how far away is _his_ nearest charging station? - Virgule, on 09/06/2008, -0/+1Sound just like what I'm working on but done the wrong way. Shai Agassi, we should talk.
- Redge, on 09/03/2008, -0/+1I don't care about oil Corporations honestly...
- benzzene, on 08/19/2008, -0/+1Will there still be too much traffic when we all drive energy efficient cars? Will cars still move at walking speed in peak hour in major cities?
- skellener, on 08/19/2008, -0/+1That's why our country needs to be investing in RENEWABLE energy now! All Bush and McBush want to do is drill for more oil.
- inactive, on 09/02/2008, -0/+1Gas is a thing of the past. Automakers who tell you otherwise ARE FULL OF *****. The technology is here folks! Energy companies and automakers are EVIL and trying to bully the world.
- inactive, on 09/02/2008, -0/+1Good point!
- mst3kcrow, on 08/19/2008, -2/+3The weakest point of the plan is having a proprietary charging system. It won't take much for competitors to have cheap/alternate charging stations and kill those profits. The money should come from the cars, not charging for something you can get already freely. Then again, people still do buy bottled water. >_< Basically he wants a car with something similar to DRM and wants to make money from that point. His target markets should be small countries where they have the ability to adapt to new tech with greater ease. Sure he doesn't want to create a company, but good luck attempting to make cars then give them away for free. It may be all rosy in his world but the fact matters that people are needed to build these cars and chances are they won't do it for free.
- raquo, on 08/23/2008, -0/+1You can buy a cellphone without a contract, it will just cost more. The same will be with the cars. No problem here.
And it's not going to work in small countries.These are primarily in Europe - people don't drive as much there as they do in US (I know it), so the profits per car in these countries will be lower.
The thing is, most people never took the car more than 150 miles away from their home town and so it is not necessary to cover ALL of the US with proposed infrastructure for these new cars to be feasible.
The project looks very promising, all in all.
PS I know nothing about this guy but I guess you don't leave a senior position at SAP just for the fun of it. He looks like the one who can do it. - raquo, on 08/23/2008, -0/+1Exactly. X% of printer users do actually refill ink themselves. But the rest buy new 'official' ink when they need it. Printer companies gather data to see how much ink per printer is bought on average and price printers accordingly. Not free, but if they did not have the ink business you could have paid $200 for the printer or even more (sorry, no idea how much ink costs)
Pure economics.
I *guess* laser printers cost more ceteris paribus because they consume less ink per page. - ChuqAU, on 08/22/2008, -0/+1A major difference is that anyone, anywhere, can generate their own electricity.
- Vagari, on 08/26/2008, -0/+1Do you mean by magic? Or the plug you can get installed in your home? Cause that's not a hack.
- fernando999, on 08/19/2008, -0/+1Nice article!
- inactive, on 08/19/2008, -0/+1***** off.
- AssShanks, on 09/14/2008, -0/+1How so? Elaborate please :)
- mst3kcrow, on 08/19/2008, -0/+1Not really, I paid $135 for an HP printer that I could put on my network...hardly free. On hindsight I should have just gotten a laserjet, a lot less hassle. You also realize you can refill your own ink cartridges right? It's a slight pain but you can do it.
- inactive, on 08/19/2008, -1/+1Please stop breathing. You're spewing CO2 out and you're not helping things.
- mauralee, on 08/20/2008, -1/+1Shai Agassi is sexy
- rampage88, on 08/31/2008, -0/+0I am going to stay optimistic on this issue, and i think EVs will be cheaper and easier to produce and maintain because:
1. They don't have many moving parts, and would be perfect for the assembly line world we live in .
2. Electricity weighs less than gasoline
3. We need to start using the energy that is more readily available. Like using the air and sunlight instead of digging for a finite amount of petroleum. I mean what if our grand kids need petroleum in the future to save lives, and they find out we used it all waiting in line at drive thrus
4. In movies the bad guys wont be able to get away just by shooting the gas tank
5. The user would be able to monitor the usage and lifespan of his/her vehicle like we do right now with our computers in real time, via HUD
If anyone can think of more reasons please reply.. - mike81871, on 08/20/2008, -0/+0Great article!
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