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80 Comments
- wonderchemist, on 10/12/2007, -7/+32Quick check shows Apple, Inc. has 11.87 Billion in the bank. Sorry, but a single flop isn't going to break Apple's Bank.
- swaggadocio, on 08/20/2008, -10/+33@trghpy: Your comment is ass backwards. The iPhone could never make AAPL tumble, sure the stock might take a slight hit if projected earnings are not met but that's about it. Mac sales are stronger than ever, the iPod owns the mp3 player market and the iTMS practically is the digital download market. There is simply no way an iPhone stumble will wipe $20billion off their market cap. 25%?! No way Jose.
"Apple won't loose the house per say". It's Apple won't LOSE the house per SE.
The comment on the wireless market is way off. Based on I don't know what.
Finally a companies balance sheet does impact upon the share price, ergo analysts, day traders, fund managers, investors and Joe Shmoe are all interested. - dtd00d, on 10/12/2007, -4/+17You're still single.
- srodolff, on 10/12/2007, -15/+27Not hardly. Not anymore than an Apple Lisa, Apple Newton, or an Apple III.
It's a piece of hardware people!.....and built using very cheap *cough* labor.
Sheesh. - jsg7, on 10/12/2007, -4/+14@ stevegraham
Bad iPhone sales could absolutely damage Apple's stock price. After all, it jumped because of the projected success of that device. If it turns out to be a failure, they'll probably lose a fair bit of their value (10% very possibly).
Apple's image is based on the amazing success of the iPod. If they have a clunker, their image will be tarnished and investors will lose some faith in them. - fredxor, on 10/12/2007, -4/+13Labor may be cheap, but the components, even in bulk, are not. It would be cheaper to buy an iPhone from Apple than to build your own exact copy. The Apple iPhone will still be extremely expensive. Few people will buy an iPhone if they're just looking for something to talk on. Most businesses that use phones with email capabilities, etcetera use ones that run on the already well supported Windows CE. They already have all the software to interface with them, etcetera. The only people I can really envision buying an iPhone are Apple fanatics.
- devindotcom, on 10/12/2007, -3/+12You will die alone.
- GregR, on 10/12/2007, -0/+7and the analysts were so accurate about the original iPod that they must be right this time as well.
/sarcasm - tnoy, on 10/12/2007, -3/+10He said to tell him something something he *doesn't* know.
- CaptShmo, on 10/12/2007, -1/+7Well i think apple realizes the iPhone may or may not find a market, and will probably have limited availability at first to test the waters and see if the price point is justified, and then boost production to catch up with demand later.
- gimmeslack12, on 10/12/2007, -5/+11Last time I checked Apple doesn't half ass anything. They've done their homework, and convinced one of the world's biggest phone companies that they got it together (Cingular). There is nothing to worry about.
- monkeyrun, on 10/12/2007, -2/+7If Apple tried to release iPhone in 1997, then it could make or break Apple.
Now ? not so much. - devindotcom, on 10/12/2007, -0/+5My thoughts exactly. Although already the marketers are suggesting 10 million people will buy one... I think they will be lucky to get a tenth of that but it won't be a flop.
- tpaine, on 10/12/2007, -2/+6@fredxor
I am by no means an apple fanatic (PC owner for life), but I've been waiting on the sidelines of the PDA phone market for a while because everything I saw seemed lacking. I'm also sick of carrying my phone & ipod around so when the iphone can hold 30gigs (and isn't tied to cingular) i'll be finally joining the ranks of PDA phone users.
I'm also by no means in the minority on this matter and I feel the ipod+phone is an innovative and highly tempting combination. ... oh and the POS Motorola doesn't even count in this regard. - zonk3r, on 10/12/2007, -0/+4Exactly. This is pure speculative *****. Most companies Apple's size can survive flops (and I doubt the iPhone will be one) if they are diversified enough to not rely on a single product. The iPhone may or may not sell as well as some hope it does but I can't see it breaking Apple...
- redlemon, on 10/12/2007, -2/+6if the iphone fails, it fails. apple will be fine. the zune didn't ruin microsoft.
- howismydriving, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3Where has it been said the Apple TV is a flop? The sales numbers I saw showed that it was almost to the 250k mark. There will be more Apple TVs sold then PS3s by the end of the year of the sales trends on both keep up.
- trghpy, on 10/12/2007, -20/+23It won't necessarlly break apples bank, however it can totally wreck its stock price and by doing so raping Apples total value.
If Apple is as successful with the iphone as it and financial planners expect, then Apples gross profits will double.
If the Iphone totally flops then the gross profit won't grow like investers want thus causing the stock to collapse which will cost Apple 10-20 billion in market capitalization.
Apple won't loose the house per say, but its never good to go backwards.
Also, if Apple totally screws up the iPhone then their connections into the wireless industry may dry up and they'll not only flop on the iPhone but also on the mobile market as a whole.
Financial researchers are more interested in how things are going to affect stock prices more than how they'll affect the companies bank account. - bovox, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3"To him, the self-same explosion of iPhone sales could potentially tear people away from the iPod, creating a squeeze as shoppers are increasingly forced to choose between one or the other."
is this guy stupid? the iPhone IS an iPod. how could an iPod eat away at an iPod's market share? - rda52, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3its 2001 all over again
- MacParrot, on 10/12/2007, -1/+4Right...got it flag. Apple which has existed since 1976 has always flopped with every product except for the iPod that came out in 2001. 31 years of flops. I wonder how they stayed in business all that time? OH! That's right, they sold products that people bought and made a profit.
Not having an overwhelming marketshare isn't the same as a failure. - kethraal, on 10/12/2007, -1/+4"Other than the iPod, Apple's products have always flopped."
Since you are clearly simple-minded, here's a simple response:
BWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA - TeKoverride, on 10/12/2007, -2/+4I am guessing not. This story should just be dugg down as lame
- redlemon, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2"includes a two year phone contract"
LOL DUDE. "INCLUDES" - JeffH, on 10/12/2007, -4/+6@twit987:
Not really. In the case of the iPod, there was not an already extremely well established and competitive market like PDA-phones are right now. When Apple entered the MP3 player business, there weren't already hundreds upon hundreds of HDD based MP3 players already out there. The iPhone is a different story. There are already many....MANY PDA-phones out there, a lot of them meeting and beating what the iPhone has promised to be. To boot, they are already running on extremely well established and supported platforms such as Palm OS and Windows Mobile, while the iPhone OS will be just getting it's first release (and if the situation is still the same as it was a month ago, won't support third party apps from the get-go).
The media situation similarities between the iPod and iPhone are very similar, I will give you that. But that's no reason to just toss aside these very valid claims people are making about the iPhone, because the situations the iPod launched under is extremely different from that of the iPhone.
And as for my 2 cents, I think the biggest roadblock for the iPhone is the demographic it's aiming at...which is next to nothing it seems. They priced it far too high for the average consumer, and they've essentially ruled out business buyers due to lack of third party program support and the fact that they decided to use their own proprietary OS instead of going with an established one. So the two main markets for phones are alienated by this iPhone. So who exactly is Apple marketing this phone to? - nreynolds, on 10/12/2007, -1/+3I bet they could multiply that "bank" by more than 115 if they converted it to yen.
- rwallen, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2I'm also a T-mobile customer and I've switched from them back to sprint, back to tmobile, then to verizon and now back to t-mobile. So far T-mobile has been the best choice but my contracts ended a couple months ago and I'm holding out until the release of the iphone. Cingular is a bit more than t-mobile but it's not that much more and I believe there will be some large promotions when the iPhone comes out making the prices on plans a little cheaper.
It can't hurt to wait until it's out to see what happens, that's what I'm doing. - MrIso, on 10/12/2007, -1/+3Um, guys (prisoner and webslave (hah)) the iPhone DOES have wifi...
http://www.cingular.com/cell-phone-service/specials/iPhone.jsp
>> EDGE, GPRS, GSM Quad-band, and WiFi capable - M4tt3r, on 10/12/2007, -1/+3I wipe from front to back, and a little twist in the middle.
- pgup, on 10/12/2007, -2/+4I'm pretty sure Apple isn't dumb enough to put all of its eggs in the basket with the iPhone
- flukierdonut, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2I really don't think the iphone is going to make or break anything
- Bael, on 10/12/2007, -1/+3A company taking risk to earn profit? Preposterous!
- prisoner24601, on 10/12/2007, -4/+6@ JeffH
"I think the biggest roadblock for the iPhone is the demographic it's aiming at...which is next to nothing it seems."
It really does seem to be "almost but not quite" a compelling unit. I've been shopping for a new phone for a couple of months now and been surprised at how many *adequate* ones there are and yet not a single *great* one. I was hoping that the iPhone was going to be it, but the lack of WiFi just makes me think I'll end up with a T-Mobile Dash or a Nokia that has it.
Recently I signed up for SkypeOut and have a $15 per year account for unlimited US calls. Now THAT'S the sort of "disruptive technology" this market needs. The call quality when I use my Linksys CIT200 handset paired to my Skype application on my desktop is surprisingly good. I've got access to WiFi whenever I'm at work or home and I figure about 2/3 of all my "minutes used" are from there. So it's just stupid for me to be paying for minutes on a cell plan when I can just use my $15 per *year* SkypeOut VOIP plan instead.
It's sad that Steve Jobs was willing to pull WiFi out of the design to basically "make nice" with Cingular. I know there are many people who think "WiFi, what on earth would I want that for?" since they've never tried Skype/Vonage or really have experience with VOIP. But there's a huge advantage to having it (and there's no disadvantage since people who don't use it "lose nothing" by having a feature in the hardware they just ignore.)
No WiFi, sealed OS with no third-party apps. I'll wait for iPhone 2.0 which I think will resolve those deficiencies. It's a lot of cash for a unit that really only lets me do the same things I could do before, just more smoothly. I'm not questioning that it will be "better" than most other units out there, but it's more about a very polished "look and feel" to the same functions I've already got. The iPod was revolutionary, the iPhone is more evolutionary. And it's pretty expensive for not a very huge step forward. - rwallen, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1The RAZR has remined very popular for several years now and while they have had changes to them they mostly consist of different colors or small upgrades to allow music to be played. Look how much money that phone has made Motorola, you don't have to adapt that quickly, Apple should do fine.
- aaronm67, on 10/12/2007, -1/+2@macparrot and @kethrall (sort of)
I have actually used a Newton, and I find it hard to say it wasn't a piece of *****, but, macparrot essentially said what I was trying to.
I was just responding to to the main topic in this reply thread, who seems to think that because Apple is releasing it, it will do well because they've "done their homework". Apple has released many products in the past that either had a very small market, or were just priced so far above similar products that they fail (I don't think anyone can argue the Lisa falls into this category).
As for the iPhone, I don't really think it can be compared to the Newton or the Lisa, because there are already a dozen products on the market that are extremely similar and have been around much longer, the iPhone is just a locked down version with a touchscreen. Will it tank like the Lisa/Newton/whatever? Probably not. Will it sell 100 million units and become the next iPod? Probably not. It will just become another option for people looking for a high end phone. - prisoner24601, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1@ mriso
"Um, guys (prisoner and webslave (hah)) the iPhone DOES have wifi..."
1. Doh! I stand corrected! Thank you for educating my ignorant self!
2. Although I'm much more hopeful about the iPhone now (you've just put it BACK on my "short list" and luckily I didn't buy that new phone from the other guy this week as I was about to!) I'm still unclear on how I'd *use* the WiFi if they don't allow 3rd party apps. I want it for Skype (or another "stick it to the man" / "Minutes?!? We don't need no stinking minutes!!!" VoIP application.) - peestandingup, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1@macparrot:
You should check out Apple's earnings sometime. The majority of their profit comes from Macs, then software, THEN iPods & iTunes stuff/other hardware sales, etc. The margins on those things are pretty small. Sure, they still turn a profit, but its not gonna make or break them.
Just because they changed their name & dropped the "Computer" from the title, doesnt mean its still not their primary focus. Just means their branching out in other ways, which they have been doing for some time now. For years, in fact. They actually should have changed it in the 90s when they started making the Newton PDA & that ill-fated gaming console. - test5477, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1not as big of a risk as many think, they have had their share of flops in the past and it did not kill them. Their computer business is as strong as ever and ipods continue to grow, how do you guys think that this is that big of a financial risk? They would not and have never staked their financial future on a single product, but i do think it will be a modest success, if only for introducing new technologies that will make it into their computers.
- MacParrot, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1@kethraal
"You think so? I think it was that they were more or less mis-managed into the ground."
No argument from me there.
"Copland"
I agree. Years of dead-end developemnt.
"the clones"
I always wondered where Apple would have been today if they had followed the cloning arrangment to the point where they designed the hardware, but others sold it.
"the rather painful transition to PowerPC"
I disagree with you here. The transition to PowerPC all things considered went rather well. Moving your hardware and software base to new platform is not easy and Apple has done it repeatedly over the course of its history (Apple II to Mac, 68XXX to PowerPC, PowerPC to Intel)
"the failed negotiations with BeOS, which simply delayed their next-gen OS by over a year, etc."
Hard to say if it really delayed it. Denial wasn't just a river in Egypt as far as Apple management was in those days. OS 7-9 was a dead-end and not upgradable to a modern OS without sacrificing the very things they needed to keep as compared to just junking it (as they did when moving to NeXTStep/ OS X) and starting over.
You made some good points. Thanks. - zeppo, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1If this thing fails I think it would be more of a problem for ATT/Cingular then Apple not that it would really damage either company. I don't think it will fail though.
- kethraal, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1"Having all their eggs in one basket almost doomed them in the 90s."
You think so? I think it was that they were more or less mis-managed into the ground (Copland, the clones, the rather painful transition to PowerPC, the failed negotiations with BeOS, which simply delayed their next-gen OS by over a year, etc.) - kethraal, on 10/12/2007, -1/+2Very often, the people who call the Newton a piece of ***** have never actually used one.
I own three MessagePads - a 130, a 2000, and a 2100. The MessagePad 130 is a bit slow (20 mhz ARM IIRC), but it's not too bad. The 2000 has a limited amount of RAM, but in day to day tasks, you don't notice. Neither were ***** -- they were just a little pricey when released
The 2100 has plenty of RAM (for what it does), and I still use it daily. The handwriting recognition is really good (after a couple months of training it's pretty much got 100% accuracy), and it's a remarkably flexible device. I wouldn't have paid the $1000 or so for it when it came out, but I would pay a couple hundred for it (and did).
Definitely not *****. - MacParrot, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1I don't agree with you on this. Apple is moving into consumer electronics and that's why they changed their name. Having all their eggs in one basket almost doomed them in the 90s.
While the Mac is certainly what has kept them around for many years, the iPod is what put them back on the map. The iPod, Airport Extreme and Apple TV are examples of them branching out and beyond the Mac. All cross-platform and easy to use whether you are a Mac or Windows person. Apple is going to do many more products like this.
The iPhone will not make or break Apple. - jmnormand, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1pure speculative ***** is what wall street does. throw in a dash of over exageration and a bit of superstition and you got the stock market baby
- MacParrot, on 10/12/2007, -2/+3aaron,
Neither the Lisa or the Newton were pieces of *****. The Lisa was the first GUI interface available for a home computer that was simply priced too high for most anyone to justify buying one. Unlike probably most people here, I actually used one (My brother-in-law had one) and from the first time I saw it, I was astounded at how easy it was to do the stuff it was intended to do. I never gave any thought to actually owning one since I didn't then (or now) have $10K (especially in 1983 dollars) to buy a computer. While the iPhone is certainly going to be more expensive than most other devices like this, $500-600 isn't really that much for a device you want.
Same thing for the Newton. It was a ground-breaking device that never got over its first-gen bugs and by the time they got it mostly right, the world had moved on to a Palm or MS device that while not as elegant, did what most people wanted for less money. If anything THAT might doom the iPhone to an also-ran.
Neither was crap, they were both just priced wrong for the market. The iPhone might suffer the same fate but until it's released, no one really knows.
For the record, I won't buy an iPhone because I don't need its phone features and it's not fully featured enough (not nearly enough storage) for me to want it as an iPod. - erictheninja, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1@stevengraham
I'm only saying this because you felt the need to correct someone else's English. "Finally a companies balance sheet does impact upon the share price, ergo analysts, day traders, fund managers, investors and Joe Shmoe are all interested." You mean "Finally, a company's balance sheet" and it should be Joe Shmoes. Joe Schmoe needs to be plural.
"The comment on the wireless market is way off. Based on I don't know what." Nice, solid argument:)
The rest of you may digg me down if you'd like. I won't be hurt. - MacParrot, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1Riiiiight. Because Apple has done so poorly since he came back. Off to school with you young man, the short bus is waiting.
- flink405, on 10/12/2007, -1/+2The cellphone business is the fashion business. What is cool today is out next week.
A company needs to be able to bring out new models or version quickly. Apple cannot do that.
With all the hype the Apple phone is getting it could be out of fashion, uncool, quickly after it arrives. - rwallen, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1What the hell was that? Thanks for wasting 3 minutes of my day with the most retarded conspiracy video I've ever seen.
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