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Why Vote When You Can Bet?

specials.slate.com — The idea behind political prediction markets is simple. Lots of people wager on the outcome of political campaigns: Who's going to be the Democratic presidential nominee? Will the Republicans take back the House? And when the votes are counted, the winning bettors collect.

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  • countmischief, on 04/23/2008, -15/+22My list of safe bets:
    Democratic Primary: Barack Obama
    General Election: John McCain (I detest him, just being a political realist)
    Congressional Elections: Democrats obtain even larger majority in both houses
    • SaperKain, on 04/23/2008, -9/+11You going to lose a lot of money on the general election bet. John McCain is way too old. Sooner or later people will figure this out and send him for a well deserved vacation.
      • asskey, on 04/23/2008, -12/+17You've been taking too many hits on that hope bong...
      • xcheats, on 04/23/2008, -10/+7Yea thats a great reason not to vote for a person. Not due to their qualifications or plans of action, but age. He's in good health, he's not more likely to die in office anymore than Obama.
        • jahurt, on 04/24/2008, -4/+7If he's in such wonderful health, why won't he release his medical records?
        • dext3r, on 04/24/2008, -2/+2If he does die, his VP takes over. Who the hell will that be? Think about it, man.
      • dOOBiEx213, on 04/23/2008, -10/+11That would be assuming the president were actually elected by the people. Puppet masters have spoken: John McCain.
      • InnerRayg, on 04/24/2008, -1/+4I don't think it's possible for John McCain to win. Too many people are pissed off about the past eight years; legitimate or not, they are gunning for the Republican Party.
        • Tweekster, on 04/24/2008, -2/+2You should probably venture outside of digg, people are pissed at bush, but mccain is doing just fine. he will edge out obama and decimate hillary.
      • joazito, on 04/24/2008, -1/+2I believe you're right, age is a pretty big issue, and being a republican after 8 years of bush means he's a massive underdog in my book.
        I'd bet he won't surpass 35% much due november.
        • Tweekster, on 04/24/2008, -1/+335%? are you stoned or just really really stupid.
          Either side could run a head of lettuce and it would be high 40's vs low 50s

          i hope obama will win, but i am realistic here. So practice these words: "president mccain"
          I wont be shocked if he wins, i hope you are not either
        • rpgmaker, on 04/24/2008, -0/+4Who the hell is digging Tweekster down? You just have to look at how the media is ripping on Obama in the Dem primaries, trying to make the Hillary electability case a plausible reality while pushing forward the Republican agenda. Obama seems to really have struck a nerve on Washington with his CHANGE slogan.
          • mcquitty, on 04/24/2008, -1/+1Many people on Digg haven't been paying to enough election cycles. It's not that the media is out to get Obama. It really isn't. When Hillary was in the lead, every misstep was magnified. Same thing with the Republicans. Every misstep that Guliani, Huckabee, and Romney did cost them. McCain basically snuck in under the radar.

            Now, Obama wasn't being scrutinized very much in the beginning. As he became the front runner, the focus has been on him. It's not that Obama is being treated different than anyone else.

            It's not Washington. It's not the media. It's politics in general.
  • liquisoft, on 04/23/2008, -27/+3"Will the republicans take back the house."

    How can they take something back that they have been ruining for nearly a decade? They've HAD the white house.

    Oh well.
  • rynTAU, on 04/23/2008, -5/+11According the Intrade "spread" at the bottom, why is Hillary favored to win, when she has no chance get the most delegates without cheating?
    • bocaJWho, on 04/23/2008, -4/+24Winning the super delegate vote is not "cheating", no matter how much you might feel like you're being cheated.
      • Tweekster, on 04/24/2008, -1/+1She really doenst have that much chance in winning that either though
    • 69sofine, on 04/23/2008, -1/+5It says "at the time of this writing," which was clearly some time ago. Click the link at the bottom for current odds.
    • DirkVA, on 04/23/2008, -1/+6The "spread" you refer to is from last year. The current prices are $81.20 for Obama and $17.00 for Clinton.
    • RyeBrye, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1Because this article is really old.
  • Alix7, on 04/23/2008, -16/+9Hillary's obviously going to take the nomination. I know I'll get buried faster than a newborn girl in India for saying this.

    But Hillary won New York, California and Texas. Three HUUUUGE states. She's going to steal the nomination because in politics the person who is most corrupt usually ends up the winner. Obama has wider support and is generally accepted by more people, but Hillary is going only for the votes and people who count.
    • sodade, on 04/23/2008, -0/+4Well - don't just babble about it man - pony up the cash for your pony.
    • tropican8, on 04/23/2008, -2/+6Any Democrat will win New York and California in a general election, just as any Republican will win Texas. Those aren't exactly swing states. If she wants to make an argument to superdelegates to overturn the will of the people, it will probably be based on her "victories" (and I use that term loosely with the last two) in PA, OH, MI, and FL.
    • Nougat, on 04/23/2008, -1/+5Talking about who won what state in the Democratic primaries and caucuses makes no sense. It's not winner-take-all. They get proportional numbers of delegates.

      That "Hillary won A, Obama won B" way of thinking is one of the things that's ***** up this election season.
    • letherial, on 04/24/2008, -0/+2If Hillary takes the election with supers, not only am i not going to vote in this election i wont ever for for Democrats again..the thought of that is wrong on so many levels. Now if she win legitimately we will have a different story...if i am in the whole overturn the election results ill vote republican, are they going to be one and the same party now?

      I'm not into dynasty's and that's just proving Clinton/bush is going to become one on the will of the party and not the people.

      Good luck to Democrats in winning if they pull that kind of stunt.
    • Tweekster, on 04/24/2008, -0/+0We have 47 other states you know
      she may get the nomination by using very dubious methods to do so, in which case make the popcorn, the 60s democratic convention are going to look like a mall protest compared to what will happen. The democrats might as well close up shop for a while.
  • solscreen, on 04/23/2008, -2/+9i placed a bet on obama when he cost $15 about a year ago. I gotta say my bet is paying off. :] Gonna collect $100 baby!
  • soundman7718, on 04/23/2008, -2/+1Ahh...the joys of a democracy.
  • laserblazer, on 04/23/2008, -5/+6This should appeal to Bush supporters who already view politics as a game.
  • hariprasad, on 04/23/2008, -4/+24"$29.20 for a contract that will pay off $100 if Obama wins the nomination, and $0 if anyone else does; and
    $45.10 for a contract that will pay off $100 if Clinton wins the nomination and $0 if anyone else does."
    How about betting $74.30 and be sure of getting $100?
    • Locke23, on 04/23/2008, -3/+11Dude...
      You just won me $25.70
      Thanks man.
    • 69sofine, on 04/23/2008, -2/+15You omitted a key phrase from your quote: "At the time of this writing," which was clearly some time ago. Check the link at the bottom of the page for current odds... I'll save you some time - Obama is at 81.20, Clinton is at 17.00, and Gore is at 4.00
      • adrenaline33, on 04/23/2008, -0/+5Still a free 1.8% return on your money if those are actually the odds considering Gore has absolutely 0 chance
        • Asdfglpwglion, on 04/23/2008, -1/+1Doesn't it cost you something to make the trades? That will narrow your margin, and even if the trading is free, I expect you could find a better return over the several months until the contract ends from a bank.
        • horscategorie, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1On InTrade, as long as you put up something on the spread and you're not a priority, you don't pay a commission. So if the ask is 17 and I place a bid at 17, I have to pay commission. If I place a bid at 16.9, no commission (when/if it gets filled)
        • dickybrown, on 04/24/2008, -0/+2can't you do better than 1.8% over the next however many months?

          and, don't forget the credit risk - are you really going to collect? - I'd say that's worth 1.8%
    • DiggedyDoo, on 04/23/2008, -2/+6If that situation occurred, it would be what economists call "an opportunity for arbitrage," aka free money, and it would disappear in short order.
    • jrspartan53, on 04/24/2008, -1/+2it did occur, back when john edwards was still running, so there was still a legitimate possibility of one of the two not winning. you'll notice now that mccain is something around a 93 dollar contract for a 100 dollar payoff, which still is some of the easiest 7 dollars you could ever make.
  • Jovensdesciple, on 04/23/2008, -14/+1Why vote (liberals) when you can bet that McCain is gonna win?
    • sqwirl, on 04/24/2008, -1/+6Good, then I'm sure you'll have no problem staying home on election day for us, right?
  • sodade, on 04/23/2008, -4/+5Hell yeah - I am going to hedge against McCane winning so that if he does, I will have some extra cash to buy ammunition - that's probably going to be the best form of currency after the fall...
  • supercooladdict, on 04/23/2008, -5/+5We are voting every day - we don't really live in a democracy, we live in what Plato called a plutocracy. The rule of money. How you spend your money is really how you vote in this world.
    • Surefly, on 04/23/2008, -3/+1Steve Jobs isn't running for president.
    • RyeBrye, on 04/24/2008, -1/+3You tried to sound smart by using the world plutocracy and then defining it as a free-market economy. Unfortunately, you are wrong. Google it.

      "Plutocracy is the rule or power through wealth or by the wealthy."
      • supercooladdict, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1So it's the poor & middle class that determine the direction of the country? Thanks for setting me straight.
    • Tweekster, on 04/24/2008, -2/+1Aww how cute, you just took intro to governments in high school...
  • szap, on 04/23/2008, -9/+4Vote George Bush!
    • sgentry6, on 04/24/2008, -6/+3i'm president forever
      i'm head of state and here to stay
      the officer elect all of your life
      i'm the leader till the end of your days

      i'm president forever
      accountable to no one no more
      daddy look at me, i'm a big boy now
      a brat to the manor born

      who wants to go back to war with iraq
      who wants to shoot a sling shot full of rocks of crack
      who wants to go and give the french their *****' statue back
      i want to take it all

      i'm president forever
      america, you found your man
      if we can all agree on this one thing
      you know you'll never have to vote again

      i'm president forever
      i finally get to do it my way
      i wanna take a ride in airforce one now

      laugh in the face of the national debt
      i wanna build the free world and make them pay back rent
      i wanna take the statue back from the *****' french
      dad, i'll make you proud

      i'm president forever

      piss up and down the walls of the oval office
      pal around with the boys in the secret service
      calling my connection for a party at camp david
      the first lady's not invited
      the first lady's not invited

      i'm president forever
      i'm president forever

      who wants to go back to war with iraq
      who wants to shoot a slingshot full of rocks of crack
      who wants to go and give the french their *****' statue back
      i wanna take it all

      laugh in the face of the national debt (take it all, take it all)
      i wanna build the free world and make them pay back rent (take it all, take it all)
      i wanna take the statue back from the *****' french (take it all, take it all)
      dad, i'll make you proud (take it all, take it all)

      i'm president forever
  • forgiste, on 04/23/2008, -7/+5John McCain won't win the general election because people are sick and tired of rich old white guys ruining the country. Plus, he got endorsed by Bush. So, I'm betting that Obama will win the general election AND of course the Dem Nomnomnomnom
    (I swear I'm not on drugs anymore)
    • zelig, on 04/23/2008, -2/+6Don't like white guys? Isn't that, like racist?
    • imgstacke, on 04/24/2008, -1/+1McCain will not win because people are tired of voting against something, they want to change to voting for something.
      Hope > Fear
      • logpony, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1I hate to be the dick here...but...no. No, I'd definitely put fear as a greater motivator than hope.
    • Tweekster, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1Obama will be the candidate, he will give mccain a run for his money but mccain will be the next president.
      It is fairly obvious here. If hillary is the nominee, well the democrats might as well sit this election out because she will have gotten in via dubious means
  • louiebaur, on 04/23/2008, -1/+2For the Democratic Primary, Barack Obama would be my bet
  • adrenaline33, on 04/23/2008, -2/+14This is a great thing for Digg to encounter. Now all the blind supporters can put their money where their mouth is or shut the ***** up.
    • TheBuzzKiller, on 04/24/2008, -1/+2"...mouth is AND shut the..."
    • sephiroth965, on 04/24/2008, -1/+1Actually I'm pretty sure a lot of us can't. It's illegal in most places to bet on the outcomes of the general election IIRC.
      • imgstacke, on 04/24/2008, -0/+2Intrade is based in Ireland, and it is legal there. Have fun on the intrawebs....
  • Pixelpaws, on 04/23/2008, -1/+2Isn't this a duplicate? I'd swear this was on the front page a couple months ago.
  • DiggedyDoo, on 04/23/2008, -0/+1As a bettor on intrade, one of the more interesting markets I checked out today was for Indiana. Clinton is favored there at about 68%. But Obama is still 80% favorite to be the nominee.
    • horscategorie, on 04/24/2008, -0/+2Everyone's saying Clinton won't win Indiana because they allow independents to vote in the Dem primary, among whom Obama is wildly more successful. The fact that Obama is still at 80% isn't relevant to the 66% Clinton chance of winning Indiana.
      • imgstacke, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1Obama won the nomination back on May 4th...
        If you subtract the SD's from the nomination threshold you get 1231 delegates, he crossed that line with the help of Ohio, Texas and that other one worth 8 delegates. He basically wrapped up the nomination after the string of 11 victories.
        Clinton's people have been stalling the SDs from ratifying Obama's candidacy ever since.
        This has been over for a long time as the only way Clinton can win is to destroy Obama's candidacy with negative campaigning, and appealing for the SDs to break for her over Obama, regardless of the ratio.

        This thing has been over for a while and every day the SDs sit on their hands is another day the Democrats increase the odds of loosing the General Election.

        That's what Operation [Ch]Kaos is all about... To delay the contest as long as possible. It's a shame the SDs are playing into the Republican's hand.
    • imgstacke, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1The only way the Clinton's can win in their current strategy (maintain control of the Democratic Party) is for the Democrats to loose the White House. Overturning Obama's ratification spells long term disaster, causing Obama to loose spells short term disaster. Either way Democrats loose.
  • TR41NWR3CK, on 04/24/2008, -0/+2I am currently reading Hunter S. Thompson's "Generation of Swine." About 20 pages into the book Hunter provides an in-depth analysis of the 86' mid-term election for gamblers. He even goes so far as to create odds on every politician, anywhere from 2-1 to 42-1.
    From what I understand most of the serious gambling is done amongst politicians and journalists.
  • CannedMango, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1The problem with this is that it further entrenches perception over reality.
  • Kenzan, on 04/24/2008, -4/+2Funny thing is,
    With the stakes of this election as high as they are,
    bet wrong and it could mean the end of civilization.
    • Chiliap2, on 04/24/2008, -1/+1I disagree. Way too extremist.
      • Kenzan, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1Think of it this way.
        Of McCain goes to war with Iran, you think other countries won't come to it's aid? Do you think that he'll be tough on the enviornment? Do you think that runaway capitalism will not enrage and cause widespread terrorism? You could say that these things will happen no matter who is president, but do you want another President like Bush?
  • BfloTees, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1Capitalism at its best! Go 'Bama!
    • thallium205, on 04/24/2008, -1/+1I never imagined I would see Obama and capitalism in the same sentence.
  • tufftugg, on 04/24/2008, -4/+3 Forget the bet, are the American people going to pull another moron move? Are they ignorant enough to vote for McCain or foolish enough to vote Hillary? The World waits and watches to see if they can do stupid three times in a row.
  • QuantumBios, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1I'm long Clinton nom, Paul (nom and pres), and brokered Rep Convention, short Obama, McCain.
  • macinit1138, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1Elections have been rigged since Gov. Bush took over. IMHO, your vote is getting to be as worthless as the dollar. No real auditing, no evidence of accountable in the government anymore. The whole thing equals professional wrestling in it's integrity. It's more for show than substance. Again, keep the faith lems... BTW, Hillary has been groomed to be your next figure head leader, so get ready for it.
    • macinit1138, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1I meant to alter my last sentence, I should have said that McCain is being groomed to succeed Bush as the Military Industrial Complex has switched recently from backing Hillary to McCain. Writing on the wall in my opinion.
      • Tweekster, on 04/24/2008, -0/+0Recently switched? only recently rigged?
        BWHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA
  • misterteenwolf, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1i'll pass. i'm just glad that our generation is gonna have a good president
  • HydrogenY, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1If I bet infinity dollars on a candidate, would that mean I couldn't possibly lose the bet?
  • xsimonxcorex, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1Just imagine how much these bets can influence the election results...

    Bringing elections into the free market? Oh geez...
    • osbjmg, on 04/24/2008, -0/+2You mean they aren't for sale already? What???
  • Tweekster, on 04/24/2008, -0/+0Why bet when you can make some real money using your opinions on the stock market. Certain companies will be greatly effected, now is the time to get in.
  • mikefitz2, on 04/24/2008, -4/+2***** every single one of you that doens't vote republican.

    Americans have stretched the bounds of the possible. The first transatlantic flight, putting a man on the moon, breaking the speed of sound, constructing the Hoover Dam, and building the Panama Canal serve as testimony to American courage and ingenuity. It wasn't Danes or Bolivians or Iranians or Koreans who achieved these feats. It was Americans. This is significant.
    • osbjmg, on 04/24/2008, -0/+2I vote however I feel is best, and sometimes that is republican... but wow, what a lack of respect. You are saying their vote doesn't really matter? If you say that, then I would say yours doesn't either. That being said, nobody's does, and we should really scrap the whole system then right?
    • haterrade, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1stop reading your 6th grade history book
  • StingingNettle, on 04/24/2008, -0/+2Bet on Ron Paul, he has the best pay out. Plus you'll get your winnings in silver.
  • optophobia, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1Go to www.predictify.com and you can get paid to predict correctly.
  • z3r0c0O1, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1Perhaps Bush's secret plan was ***** up his campaign and then put his entire fortune on the democrats?
  • shoook, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1It's nice to see an informative article on a topic I'm unfamiliar with rather than "Hilarious Fake Google Search Results." Thank you Digg!
  • Spoomeister, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1*sigh* Stupid Washington State online gambling laws... I can't get in on this....
  • TwiceHephaestus, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1These markets are actually very, very good predictors of just about anything. Given tradable bonds on the question "Will it snow next april in this state?", worth $100, you can get far more accurate predictions than any weatherman. And it makes sense why.
    Imagine there are two people both buying and selling these sorts of stocks. The one who is better will make more money, and the one who is worse will lose more money. The loser will eventually give up and stop playing the market, and the winner will keep making money by playing it. Over time, better and better people join, and the very best at predicting for this market will be the ones who are playing it.
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