Iran: Talks or War?

An in-depth dive on Brandon Weichert’s National Security Hour podcast into the prospects for US-Iranian talks aimed at averting a regional Middle East war as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu rushes to Washington to stiffen US President Donald Trump’s negotiating position.

To watch the video, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/iran-talks-or-war

Is Trump’s Iran “talks” real diplomacy—or just the prelude to a strike?

In this episode, Brandon Weichert is joined by veteran journalist and longtime Middle East analyst James M. Dorsey for a wide-ranging, no-BS breakdown of what’s actually happening behind the headlines. One week it looks like Washington is preparing to bomb Iran.

The next, it’s “negotiations.” Meanwhile, U.S. military assets keep flowing into theater and Israel keeps turning the pressure up. Something has to give.

Dorsey doesn’t do cheap predictions—and that’s exactly why this conversation matters. We dig into why negotiations might be serious, why mutual distrust could still kill any deal, and the single issue that most Western commentary gets wrong: Iran’s ballistic missiles—not the nuclear file—sit at the core of Tehran’s conventional deterrent. Strip that away and, as Dorsey puts it, Iran is effectively “naked.”

We also unpack the regional power chessboard:

-- Why the Gulf states care as much (or more) about missiles and Iran’s non-state allies than centrifuges

-- Why Russia and China won’t “save” Iran militarily—even if they want the regime to survive

-- What a U.S. strike would trigger: Houthis, Hezbollah, Hormuz, and the problem of escalation you can’t “turn off”

-- Why Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and Israel are the true heavyweight players shaping the Middle East’s next era

-- How Israel’s doctrine has shifted after October 7—and why that matters for Syria, the Kurds, and regional fragmentation

-- The uncomfortable truth: U.S. influence in the Middle East is often decided in Washington, not the region

Bottom line: this isn’t Venezuela. Iran hits back. The region (almost universally) wants to avoid a war. And Trump’s decision-making is…Trump’s decision-making.

If you want a clear-eyed look at the real drivers—deterrence, leverage, geography, and domestic politics—this episode is for you.

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