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A warning on concentrated US stock gains and falling G10 liquidity

A market account says roughly 23% of the largest 500 US stocks outperformed the S&P 500 over the past decade.

GM
2 Sources, 4h ago, first seen 4h ago

TLDR

A market account says roughly 23% of the largest 500 US stocks and 22% of the top 2,000 outperformed the S&P 500 over the past decade. It says a G10 excess liquidity indicator fell to its lowest level since early 2024 and has historically led risk assets by around three to six months. The account warns that falling liquidity and reliance on a few market leaders could leave equities vulnerable.

Combined views

15.4K

2 Sources, first seen 4h ago

242 likes36 comments86 saves62 reposts

Combined views

15.4K

2 Sources, first seen 4h ago

242 likes36 comments86 saves62 reposts

Sentiment

Positive——Negative

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No sentiment analysis available yet.

Sentiment

Positive——Negative

Summary

Not enough discussion yet.

No sentiment analysis available yet.

2 Sources

@GlobalMktObservMarket liquidity is falling RAPIDLY: The G10 Excess Liquidity Indicator has dropped to its lowest level since early 2024. This measures the gap between real M1 money supply growth and economic growth, and historically leads risk assets by around 3-6 months. The move increasingly resembles the setup seen ahead of the 2022 bear market, when excess liquidity collapsed, and the S&P 500 subsequently followed with an over-20 % decline. Today, the indicator is again rolling over aggressively, suggesting that liquidity conditions could become a significant headwind for equities over the coming months. This is especially important as major central banks are now hiking rates, including the Fed, while global government bond yields are surging to levels not seen in decades. If the historical relationship holds, the current decline in excess liquidity could leave equities increasingly vulnerable to any unfavorable news. The 2022 liquidity playbook may be repeating.4h
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    2 Sources

    @GlobalMktObservMarket liquidity is falling RAPIDLY: The G10 Excess Liquidity Indicator has dropped to its lowest level since early 2024. This measures the gap between real M1 money supply growth and economic growth, and historically leads risk assets by around 3-6 months. The move increasingly resembles the setup seen ahead of the 2022 bear market, when excess liquidity collapsed, and the S&P 500 subsequently followed with an over-20 % decline. Today, the indicator is again rolling over aggressively, suggesting that liquidity conditions could become a significant headwind for equities over the coming months. This is especially important as major central banks are now hiking rates, including the Fed, while global government bond yields are surging to levels not seen in decades. If the historical relationship holds, the current decline in excess liquidity could leave equities increasingly vulnerable to any unfavorable news. The 2022 liquidity playbook may be repeating.4h
    Today's Rank

    #16

    Today's Rank

    #16