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Rumor

Tesla robotaxi fleet estimates and a claimed AI5/AI6 RAM cut tied to Optimus

One user models 17% weekly growth in paid autonomous miles; another claims a RAM shortage prompted changes to AI5 and AI6.

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2 Sources, 1d ago, first seen 1d ago

TLDR

One user estimates the fleet Tesla would need to sustain 17% week-over-week growth in paid autonomous miles through year-end, assuming 100 paid miles per vehicle per day. They say Tesla has 589 registered vehicles in Texas, excluding Florida, putting it about two weeks ahead of the model’s fleet target. Separately, another user claims Tesla is reducing RAM for AI5 and AI6 to avoid delaying Optimus mass production.

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38.1K

2 Sources, first seen 1d ago

601 likes43 comments75 saves52 reposts

Combined views

38.1K

2 Sources, first seen 1d ago

601 likes43 comments75 saves52 reposts

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2 Sources

@CernBasherRobotaxi Fleet Growth to Sustain 17% Growth If Tesla is going to sustain the 17% week-over-week growth in paid autonomous miles, here's the number of vehicles they need (assuming 100 paid miles per day) until the end of the year. This table also shows the number of vehicles they need to add each week. Currently in Texas (not including Florida) they have 589 vehicles registered - so it appears that they are about two weeks ahead of the number of vehicles they need to maintain the 17% growth trajectory. Of course, they could always grow faster than 17% for a period of time. The revenue numbers in the table assume $2.50 per mile.1d
@CuriousPejjyElon Musk gives a BIG update on $TSLA Optimus as they are getting ready to mass produce them. Due to a massive shortage of RAM chips, Tesla has decides to reduce the GB of AI5 & AI6 to avoid delaying the mass production of Optimus. This is significant because it clearly shows that Tesla does not want to delay this product any longer and would like to begin volume production. Earlier it's been reported that Tesla will on track to produce 50,000 Optimis by end of this year and than manufacture 2,000-2,500/week sometime next year. Currently, Giga-Fremont can produce up to 1 million Optimis annually. After Giga-Texas's Optimus factory is down (projected by mid 2027), Tesla can then produce 11 million Optimis with both factories. 2028 is gonna be a wild year Optimus.17h
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    2 Sources

    @CernBasherRobotaxi Fleet Growth to Sustain 17% Growth If Tesla is going to sustain the 17% week-over-week growth in paid autonomous miles, here's the number of vehicles they need (assuming 100 paid miles per day) until the end of the year. This table also shows the number of vehicles they need to add each week. Currently in Texas (not including Florida) they have 589 vehicles registered - so it appears that they are about two weeks ahead of the number of vehicles they need to maintain the 17% growth trajectory. Of course, they could always grow faster than 17% for a period of time. The revenue numbers in the table assume $2.50 per mile.1d
    @CuriousPejjyElon Musk gives a BIG update on $TSLA Optimus as they are getting ready to mass produce them. Due to a massive shortage of RAM chips, Tesla has decides to reduce the GB of AI5 & AI6 to avoid delaying the mass production of Optimus. This is significant because it clearly shows that Tesla does not want to delay this product any longer and would like to begin volume production. Earlier it's been reported that Tesla will on track to produce 50,000 Optimis by end of this year and than manufacture 2,000-2,500/week sometime next year. Currently, Giga-Fremont can produce up to 1 million Optimis annually. After Giga-Texas's Optimus factory is down (projected by mid 2027), Tesla can then produce 11 million Optimis with both factories. 2028 is gonna be a wild year Optimus.17h
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