World & BusinessEl Niño projected to cause 451,000 extra heat deaths from June 2026 to February 2027
The Guardian reports that the estimated toll comes on top of heat deaths already driven by climate change. Researchers say better forecasts, cooling centers and protections for outdoor workers could save lives.
TLDR
The Guardian reported on September 23, 2026, that Climate Impact Lab scientists projected 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide from June 2026 through February 2027—not just over the following six months. The lab projects 239,000 ± 11,000 extra deaths for September 2026–February 2027, compared with the matching months in an average year using a 1996–2025 baseline. Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil are projected to be hardest hit in that six-month period. The estimates cover heat deaths, not the further deaths expected from droughts, wildfires and flooding. The Guardian says the analysis used peer-reviewed methods, but the report itself was still awaiting submission to a peer-reviewed journal.
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El Niño projected to cause 451,000 extra heat deaths from June 2026 to February 2027
The Guardian reports that the estimated toll comes on top of heat deaths already driven by climate change. Researchers say better forecasts, cooling centers and protections for outdoor workers could save lives.
TLDR
The Guardian reported on September 23, 2026, that Climate Impact Lab scientists projected 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide from June 2026 through February 2027—not just over the following six months. The lab projects 239,000 ± 11,000 extra deaths for September 2026–February 2027, compared with the matching months in an average year using a 1996–2025 baseline. Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil are projected to be hardest hit in that six-month period. The estimates cover heat deaths, not the further deaths expected from droughts, wildfires and flooding. The Guardian says the analysis used peer-reviewed methods, but the report itself was still awaiting submission to a peer-reviewed journal.