Global commodity prices projected to rise 23% in 2026 amid Middle East conflict

The World Bank’s Oct. 28 outlook projects a 23% rise in global commodity prices in 2026, including a 32% rise in energy prices and about 10% in food commodity prices. The Middle East conflict has drawn down oil stocks, while disrupted grain shipments and El Niño threaten food affordability. A food crisis is a conditional risk if higher-than-expected energy prices, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a very strong El Niño coincide.