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Hormuz oil shipments reportedly reach six-month high

Kalshi said on September 19 that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had reached a six-month high.

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2 Sources, 11d ago, first seen 11d ago

TLDR

Kalshi reported a six-month high for oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz on September 19. A separate post that day argued that Iran might outlast the U.S., claiming that maintaining military protection for oil traffic was straining U.S. Navy readiness and consuming munitions.

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2 Sources, first seen 11d ago

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Combined views

830.9K

2 Sources, first seen 11d ago

3.8K likes159 comments161 saves315 reposts

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2 Sources

@MarioNawfal🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may not need to defeat America militarily if it can simply outlast it Washington is still getting significant amounts of oil through Hormuz under military protection, but the bigger question is whether it can keep doing it. The U.S. Navy is burning through readiness and munitions maintaining the operation, while Iran only needs enough oil and revenue moving to keep its economy alive. And Tehran may have the advantage in that kind of contest. Iran has spent decades living under sanctions and economic pressure. Americans and Europeans haven't. Fuel shortages are already appearing in parts of the U.S. and Europe, Saudi crude deliveries to European refiners are set to disappear in October, and traffic through Hormuz has fallen again after briefly recovering. Meanwhile, the Saudi front is getting worse. The Houthis have now struck a fuel facility at Riyadh's international airport and are openly warning that “what is coming will be greater.” Even incursions into Saudi Arabia's southern provinces can no longer be dismissed outright, although whether the Houthis could actually seize and hold Saudi territory remains heavily disputed. Then there's the nuclear question. Iran's Mohsen Rezaei has now raised the possibility of leaving the NPT if the conflict continues. There's no claim yet that Iran is building a bomb, but the war has fundamentally changed Tehran's calculation. And while Washington is trying to manage all of that, Europe is moving toward another potentially dangerous moment with Russia. Putin probably does not intend to deliberately attack NATO. What's worrying is everything surrounding that possibility. Military exercises, hybrid attacks, false-flag fears and a weakening NATO create exactly the environment where one side can misread what the other is doing. So America may now be facing two wars of endurance at once. Iran is betting the West cannot sustain the economic and military cost of containing it indefinitely. Russia may be betting Europe cannot sustain Ukraine indefinitely. And in both cases, time itself is becoming part of the weapon. @WeTheBrandon
@KalshiJUST IN: Oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz hit six-month high
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    2 Sources

    @MarioNawfal🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may not need to defeat America militarily if it can simply outlast it Washington is still getting significant amounts of oil through Hormuz under military protection, but the bigger question is whether it can keep doing it. The U.S. Navy is burning through readiness and munitions maintaining the operation, while Iran only needs enough oil and revenue moving to keep its economy alive. And Tehran may have the advantage in that kind of contest. Iran has spent decades living under sanctions and economic pressure. Americans and Europeans haven't. Fuel shortages are already appearing in parts of the U.S. and Europe, Saudi crude deliveries to European refiners are set to disappear in October, and traffic through Hormuz has fallen again after briefly recovering. Meanwhile, the Saudi front is getting worse. The Houthis have now struck a fuel facility at Riyadh's international airport and are openly warning that “what is coming will be greater.” Even incursions into Saudi Arabia's southern provinces can no longer be dismissed outright, although whether the Houthis could actually seize and hold Saudi territory remains heavily disputed. Then there's the nuclear question. Iran's Mohsen Rezaei has now raised the possibility of leaving the NPT if the conflict continues. There's no claim yet that Iran is building a bomb, but the war has fundamentally changed Tehran's calculation. And while Washington is trying to manage all of that, Europe is moving toward another potentially dangerous moment with Russia. Putin probably does not intend to deliberately attack NATO. What's worrying is everything surrounding that possibility. Military exercises, hybrid attacks, false-flag fears and a weakening NATO create exactly the environment where one side can misread what the other is doing. So America may now be facing two wars of endurance at once. Iran is betting the West cannot sustain the economic and military cost of containing it indefinitely. Russia may be betting Europe cannot sustain Ukraine indefinitely. And in both cases, time itself is becoming part of the weapon. @WeTheBrandon
    @KalshiJUST IN: Oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz hit six-month high
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