A September 20 post, citing JPMorgan, projects that global oil inventories could reach a 6.8 billion-barrel operational floor that month if Hormuz stays shut. The post claims falling below that level would prevent pipelines from maintaining pressure and cause refinery failures.

Separately, a September 19 post argues that India's crude supply routes face pressure from war risks in Hormuz, Houthi-related security risks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, and a reported shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline after mid-September drone strikes. It says India imports about 89% of its crude and warns of pressure on freight, insurance, refinery costs and household budgets.