Ahead of the September 16, 2026 decision, The Kobeissi Letter says markets see a 93% chance of the Fed’s first rate hike since July 2023. A separate post puts the expected increase at a quarter point, to 3.75%–4.00%, with the decision due at 2 p.m. ET. Looking further ahead, another post says markets expect four quarter-point hikes over the next year. It cites Reuters Breakingviews’ argument that those expectations may be too high: underlying inflation remains relatively contained, and expensive energy could ultimately weaken growth rather than trigger persistent inflation.