Could the 10-year Treasury yield top 6% in 2027?

The Kobeissi Letter points to tightening cycles since 1963, saying the 10-year Treasury yield rose an average of 50 basis points—0.5 percentage points—in the first six months after the Fed began raising rates. It says the average increase reached 110 basis points over the following 12 months. Its scenario puts the yield above 6% in 2027 if that pattern repeats. But the historical outcomes it cites varied widely: increases of up to 400 basis points and declines of up to 70 basis points over the 12 months after the first hike.