The Strait of Hormuz’s role in oil prices and Bitcoin risk
A September 25, 2026 market commentary argues that keeping Hormuz usable matters more than the Trump–Xi trade truce, and cautions against treating Bitcoin as a clean geopolitical hedge.
TLDR
A user’s September 25, 2026 commentary puts Brent near $105 and Bitcoin near $84,000, arguing that the energy shock is shaping inflation risk and Fed policy. The author says reopening Hormuz and easing the US naval blockade could bring Brent toward $90–$100 and support a rebound in tech, Bitcoin and crypto. If attacks expand or shipping stays blocked, they see Brent at $110–$120 as plausible. Their base case is more volatility before a clear direction, with Bitcoin behaving more like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset than a clean geopolitical hedge in this episode.