Report
Middle East Oil Exports Recover to Pre-War Levels Despite Ongoing Conflict
Gulf producers' daily shipments averaged ~24.6 million barrels/day, above pre-conflict levels of ~23.3 million, via alternative routes. Hormuz Strait flows remain at ~82% of pre-war levels. Brent crude stays elevated at ~$110+ due to supply fears and ~$20/barrel shipping cost premiums.
TLDR
Supply chain resilience through improvised routes demonstrates adaptation to geopolitical disruption, but elevated prices persist due to logistics premiums and conflict risks. This sustains inflationary pressures on energy costs, heating oil, and diesel prices globally. The disconnect between volume recovery and sticky prices highlights ongoing market uncertainty about durability of alternative routes and escalation risks.
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