AP reports the growth moved China closer to meeting its official annual growth target.
AP reports that China says its economy grew 4.5% in July–September from a year earlier, beating forecasts. That brought it closer to its official annual growth target.
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China’s economy expanded 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier, beating expectations and accelerating from 4.3% growth in the April-to-June period.
The figure, released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics, topped the 4.4% median forecast in a Reuters poll. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, gross domestic product rose 1.2%, up from 0.9% in the second quarter, Reuters reported.
Strong overseas demand and industrial production powered the expansion. China’s industrial output increased 5.5% in September from a year earlier, the fastest pace in six months. Retail sales rose 1.1%, improving from August’s 0.4% gain, though consumer spending remained subdued overall.
China is also on track to surpass last year’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus after recording a $938 billion surplus in the first nine months of 2026, according to The Associated Press. Elevated US tariffs have redirected more Chinese exports toward Southeast Asia, Latin America and Europe, with semiconductors and vehicles among the products driving growth.
The export boom has kept factories busy, but it has also increased pressure from trading partners concerned about cheap Chinese manufactured goods. Chinese exports to the European Union rose 16% in the first nine months, while the bloc’s trade deficit with China exceeded $1.1 billion a day, AP reported.
The headline growth rate masks continuing weakness at home. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months, while property investment dropped 20.6%, Reuters reported. China’s long-running property downturn has weighed on household wealth and encouraged saving rather than spending.
That leaves policymakers balancing two very different economies: an export- and manufacturing-led sector that is still expanding, and a domestic economy constrained by weak consumption and investment.
China grew 4.6% across the first nine months of the year, keeping the government’s full-year target of 4.5% to 5% within reach. The International Monetary Fund expects annual growth of 4.5%, at the bottom of that range.
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