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    Oil supertanker shortages and the $1 million-a-day shipping squeeze

    A Bloomberg Opinion column says a supertanker shortage has triggered the biggest-ever rally in crude shipping costs, but argues those rates aren’t a new normal.

    Vee📊🫆VE
    Javier BlasJB
    BloombergBL
    11 Sources, 24d ago, first seen 24d ago

    TLDR

    Bloomberg Opinion’s September 21, 2026 column frames $1 million-a-day oil tankers as the next inflation shock. It says a shortage of supertankers has driven a record rally in crude shipping costs. But with orders for new supertankers heading to a 50-year high, the column argues that current rates won’t become a new normal.

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    356.3K

    11 Sources, first seen 24d ago

    1.1K likes75 comments124 saves266 reposts

    Combined views

    356.3K

    11 Sources, first seen 24d ago

    1.1K likes75 comments124 saves266 reposts

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    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

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    Related

    China’s oil imports and the changing markets it buys from

    A Bloomberg Opinion column says China is still importing significantly less crude than before the Iran war, despite rumors of renewed heavy buying. The change, it argues, is where Beijing buys.

    11 Sources

    Vee📊🫆@vee_anibeHEADLINE RADAR 🛢️ ENERGY - RELIEF IS THE NEW HEADLINE Oil has fallen to its lowest level in more than a week as markets price: improving diplomacy around the Iran war partial recovery of Saudi shipments some restoration of Hormuz traffic Reuters reports Brent around $101.71 and WTI below $100 early Monday. 🇨🇳 CHINA - THIS IS THE BIGGER RISK-ON STORY The yuan just hit its strongest level against the dollar in more than 3½ years, reaching about 6.6957. The PBOC appears to be easing its resistance to yuan appreciation ahead of the Trump–Xi summit Thursday. That is not just FX noise. It potentially signals: China confidence → US-China de-escalation → AI / trade / supply-chain optimism → Semiconductors → Asian equities → global risk appetite AP reports Asian technology stocks are already responding positively, with South Korea’s Kospi up 1.8% and gains in Taiwan technology shares. NOW LETS DO THE TRUTH FILTER The headline: “Oil is falling because the crisis is easing.” VEE FILTER: Not necessarily. Yes, some Saudi exports are recovering. But the physical system remains stressed. The WSJ reports the oil tanker shortage has become severe, with VLCC rates exceeding $1 million per day and a significant portion of the global tanker fleet tied up around Oman/Hormuz. That creates an unusual situation: Oil price ↓ while the cost of physically moving oil ↑. That is a major divergence. My conclusion: The market is pricing future normalization faster than the physical logistics system is actually normalizing. THE HIDDEN CATALYST TANKER CAPACITY This is today’s most important hidden variable. Most traders might be watching: WTI $100. What I’m watching is: VLCC availability + freight + Hormuz traffic. Why? Because if Saudi Arabia has crude but cannot efficiently move it: Crude exists ≠ Crude delivered And if tanker capacity remains constrained: Freight ↑ → delivered crude cost ↑ → fuel prices remain elevated → inflation risk remains → Treasury yields remain pressured → Fed remains restrictive. The WSJ says roughly 15% of the global VLCC fleet is tied up near Oman, while longer routes are consuming additional capacity.24d
    Javier Blas@JavierBlasCOLUMN: The world doesn't have enough oil supertankers right now, triggering the biggest ever rally in crude shipping costs. But current values aren't a new normal, with orders for new oil supertankers heading to a 50-year high. @Opinion https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-21/oil-market-the-1-million-a-day-oil-tanker-will-drive-inflation?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter23d
    Bloomberg@businessSupertanker rental rates of more than $1 million a day are starting to trickle down through the wider oil shipping fleet, writes @alexlongley1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-09-22/record-oil-supertanker-rates-make-waves-for-the-whole-fleet?taid=6ab271484ff7f500015217b7&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter22d
    Financial Times@FTOil tanker costs hit record $1.2mn a day as Iran war disrupts shipping https://ft.trib.al/I9X2CcA22d
    The Japan Times@japantimesCommentary: The cost of hiring a very large crude carrier from the Persian Gulf to Asia has risen to a record high of $1.1 million a day. https://ebx.sh/3d4XoJ21d
    The Economist@TheEconomistThe squeeze in the Gulf has sent the cost of moving crude soaring https://www.economist.com/business/2026/09/24/tanker-rates-are-on-the-crest-of-a-wave?taid=6ab5432aa627190001d5e683&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter20d
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    Javier Blas

    11 Sources

    Vee📊🫆@vee_anibeHEADLINE RADAR 🛢️ ENERGY - RELIEF IS THE NEW HEADLINE Oil has fallen to its lowest level in more than a week as markets price: improving diplomacy around the Iran war partial recovery of Saudi shipments some restoration of Hormuz traffic Reuters reports Brent around $101.71 and WTI below $100 early Monday. 🇨🇳 CHINA - THIS IS THE BIGGER RISK-ON STORY The yuan just hit its strongest level against the dollar in more than 3½ years, reaching about 6.6957. The PBOC appears to be easing its resistance to yuan appreciation ahead of the Trump–Xi summit Thursday. That is not just FX noise. It potentially signals: China confidence → US-China de-escalation → AI / trade / supply-chain optimism → Semiconductors → Asian equities → global risk appetite AP reports Asian technology stocks are already responding positively, with South Korea’s Kospi up 1.8% and gains in Taiwan technology shares. NOW LETS DO THE TRUTH FILTER The headline: “Oil is falling because the crisis is easing.” VEE FILTER: Not necessarily. Yes, some Saudi exports are recovering. But the physical system remains stressed. The WSJ reports the oil tanker shortage has become severe, with VLCC rates exceeding $1 million per day and a significant portion of the global tanker fleet tied up around Oman/Hormuz. That creates an unusual situation: Oil price ↓ while the cost of physically moving oil ↑. That is a major divergence. My conclusion: The market is pricing future normalization faster than the physical logistics system is actually normalizing. THE HIDDEN CATALYST TANKER CAPACITY This is today’s most important hidden variable. Most traders might be watching: WTI $100. What I’m watching is: VLCC availability + freight + Hormuz traffic. Why? Because if Saudi Arabia has crude but cannot efficiently move it: Crude exists ≠ Crude delivered And if tanker capacity remains constrained: Freight ↑ → delivered crude cost ↑ → fuel prices remain elevated → inflation risk remains → Treasury yields remain pressured → Fed remains restrictive. The WSJ says roughly 15% of the global VLCC fleet is tied up near Oman, while longer routes are consuming additional capacity.24d
    Javier Blas@JavierBlasCOLUMN: The world doesn't have enough oil supertankers right now, triggering the biggest ever rally in crude shipping costs. But current values aren't a new normal, with orders for new oil supertankers heading to a 50-year high. @Opinion https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-21/oil-market-the-1-million-a-day-oil-tanker-will-drive-inflation?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter23d
    Bloomberg@businessSupertanker rental rates of more than $1 million a day are starting to trickle down through the wider oil shipping fleet, writes @alexlongley1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-09-22/record-oil-supertanker-rates-make-waves-for-the-whole-fleet?taid=6ab271484ff7f500015217b7&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter22d
    Financial Times@FTOil tanker costs hit record $1.2mn a day as Iran war disrupts shipping https://ft.trib.al/I9X2CcA22d
    The Japan Times@japantimesCommentary: The cost of hiring a very large crude carrier from the Persian Gulf to Asia has risen to a record high of $1.1 million a day. https://ebx.sh/3d4XoJ21d
    The Economist@TheEconomistThe squeeze in the Gulf has sent the cost of moving crude soaring https://www.economist.com/business/2026/09/24/tanker-rates-are-on-the-crest-of-a-wave?taid=6ab5432aa627190001d5e683&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter20d
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