Fed reportedly poised for first rate hike in three years

Coin Bureau said on September 15, 2026, that odds of a Fed hike had climbed to 94.5%, from under 50% a month earlier. It said nearly every major Wall Street bank expected a hike, with most forecasting 50 basis points—half a percentage point—of total tightening by year-end.

WOLF Financial quoted Fundstrat’s Mark Newton expecting a September 16 hike, but only one rather than the three he said the curve had priced in. Newton called hiking rates to combat oil-driven inflation “pretty irresponsible,” arguing that higher crude prices were temporary and supply-driven rather than demand-driven.