China’s trade surplus with 14 non-US partners appears to be surging

Robin J Brooks writes that his analysis of China’s seasonally adjusted trade data shows a sharply rising surplus with 14 other trading partners, while the US surplus has returned to pre-2025 levels. He argues China is redirecting exports away from the US, presumably to reduce its exposure to a future trade war. He says imports are also rising, so the growing overall surplus is not simply a result of buying less from abroad.