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U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reportedly tops 5.3%, its highest since 2002

One September 30 post said slightly cooler inflation data failed to slow the rise. Another warned that high mortgage rates could squeeze buyers while discouraging owners with cheaper loans from selling.

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5 Sources, 15h ago, first seen 15h ago

TLDR

September 30 posts put the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 5.304% to 5.306%, its highest since May 2002. One said slightly cooler inflation data did little to ease the bond sell-off. Another argued that 30-year mortgage rates around 7.6% were squeezing buyers, while owners with 3–4% mortgages had little incentive to sell.

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5 Sources, first seen 15h ago

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Featured Source

Combined views

178.5K

5 Sources, first seen 15h ago

809 likes88 comments70 saves114 reposts

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Sentiment

Positive——Negative

Summary

Not enough discussion yet.

No sentiment analysis available yet.

5 Sources

@DeItaoneU.S. 10-YEAR YIELD HITS 24-YEAR HIGH The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.304%, surpassing its 2007 peak and reaching the highest level since May 2002. Persistent energy-driven inflation concerns and stronger U.S. economic data are fueling the bond selloff. Analysts also point to rising government debt and historic AI infrastructure investment as structural forces keeping borrowing costs elevated.
@AdamBLivThe US 10Y Treasury Yield is now over 5.3%. A 5.304% yield is the highest since May 2002. And this unfortunately means the housing market is getting squeezed from both sides. 10Y Treasury: 5.30% 30Y mortgage: ~7.6% Spread: ~230 bps Historically, that spread has averaged closer to ~170 bps. So buyers are getting hit twice with the underlying risk-free rate being brutally high and the mortgage premium on top of it being unusually wide. So for now we have buyers getting crushed on monthly payments, while homeowners sitting on 3–4% mortgages have a massive incentive not to sell. High rates staying elevated are going to continue to destroy demand and the mortgage lock-in will contract the available supply. Housing will be frozen without prices collapsing.
@robin_j_brooksThe global bond market sell-off casts its shadow over everything. Today's inflation data suggest the Fed shouldn't hike in October, but - as short-end rates reprice - long-term yields are spiking. Markets want hikes and they'll fight until they get them... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-global-debt-crisis-starts-2e0
@13_niakrisTen-year Treasury yields broke above 5.30% Inflation numbers cooled slightly this morning. The market erased the relief in minutes. The 10-year yield touched 5.306%, a new 2002 high. Borrowing costs climbed 55 basis points this month alone. On Polymarket, the 5.3% yield contract holds firm at 90%. The 5.5% target is already a 50/50 coin flip. Hedge funds did not buy the dip. Goldman Sachs data shows funds heavily shorted the market. They sold $1.50 of stock for every dollar bought. Retail trades the morning headline. Big money trades the highest borrowing costs in 24 years. Does Friday's jobs report push yields past 5.5%?
@StealthQE4Bond yields keep relentlessly climbing. Investors hide in a few AI names in tech as a result. The other 90% of the market gets pummeled. Rinse and repeat.
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    5 Sources

    @DeItaoneU.S. 10-YEAR YIELD HITS 24-YEAR HIGH The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.304%, surpassing its 2007 peak and reaching the highest level since May 2002. Persistent energy-driven inflation concerns and stronger U.S. economic data are fueling the bond selloff. Analysts also point to rising government debt and historic AI infrastructure investment as structural forces keeping borrowing costs elevated.
    @AdamBLivThe US 10Y Treasury Yield is now over 5.3%. A 5.304% yield is the highest since May 2002. And this unfortunately means the housing market is getting squeezed from both sides. 10Y Treasury: 5.30% 30Y mortgage: ~7.6% Spread: ~230 bps Historically, that spread has averaged closer to ~170 bps. So buyers are getting hit twice with the underlying risk-free rate being brutally high and the mortgage premium on top of it being unusually wide. So for now we have buyers getting crushed on monthly payments, while homeowners sitting on 3–4% mortgages have a massive incentive not to sell. High rates staying elevated are going to continue to destroy demand and the mortgage lock-in will contract the available supply. Housing will be frozen without prices collapsing.
    @robin_j_brooksThe global bond market sell-off casts its shadow over everything. Today's inflation data suggest the Fed shouldn't hike in October, but - as short-end rates reprice - long-term yields are spiking. Markets want hikes and they'll fight until they get them... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-global-debt-crisis-starts-2e0
    @13_niakrisTen-year Treasury yields broke above 5.30% Inflation numbers cooled slightly this morning. The market erased the relief in minutes. The 10-year yield touched 5.306%, a new 2002 high. Borrowing costs climbed 55 basis points this month alone. On Polymarket, the 5.3% yield contract holds firm at 90%. The 5.5% target is already a 50/50 coin flip. Hedge funds did not buy the dip. Goldman Sachs data shows funds heavily shorted the market. They sold $1.50 of stock for every dollar bought. Retail trades the morning headline. Big money trades the highest borrowing costs in 24 years. Does Friday's jobs report push yields past 5.5%?
    @StealthQE4Bond yields keep relentlessly climbing. Investors hide in a few AI names in tech as a result. The other 90% of the market gets pummeled. Rinse and repeat.
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