China’s manufacturing surplus could be heading toward $3 trillion, excluding gold imports

In a September 2026 post, the author argues that China’s surplus, net of gold, substantially exceeds its 2025 level. The author says its manufacturing surplus is heading toward $3 trillion if gold imports are excluded, propelled by increased car and machinery exports and higher electronics prices. The author also argues that Trump prematurely declared victory over an apparent decline in China’s bilateral surplus, leaving Europe to press for a policy shift.