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World & Business

How a Fed rate hike could help—or hurt—stocks

On September 16, 2026, Limitless said its prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike at 87%, while traders gave SPY a 62% chance of closing higher that day.

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2 Sources, 14d ago, first seen 14d ago

TLDR

In its September 16 outlook, Limitless cited five S&P 500 scenarios from JPMorgan’s trading desk. No hike could mean a 1.25%–1.75% decline, while a 0.25% hike without new guidance could bring a 0.25%–0.75% gain. A 0.25% hike paired with the prospect of rates needing to go much higher could mean a 1%–2% drop. Separately, a market commentator drew a cautionary comparison with 2007, arguing that bonds showed economic stress before stocks did.

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32.2K

2 Sources, first seen 14d ago

131 likes47 comments17 saves11 reposts

Combined views

32.2K

2 Sources, first seen 14d ago

131 likes47 comments17 saves11 reposts

Sentiment

Positive——Negative

Summary

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No sentiment analysis available yet.

Sentiment

Positive——Negative

Summary

Not enough discussion yet.

No sentiment analysis available yet.

2 Sources

@trylimitlessfin🚨🚨🚨 THE MARKET IS NOT READY FOR TODAY’S FED DECISION! The Fed announces its rate decision TODAY at 2:00 PM ET. Prediction markets on Limitless currently see an 87% chance of a RATE HIKE. But, a hike could actually be BULLISH for the stocks. JPMorgan’s trading desk sees five possible scenarios for the S&P 500: 🔴 NO HIKE: Stocks could fall 1.25%-1.75% as inflation fears push longer-term bond yields higher. 🟢 0.25% HIKE, NO NEW GUIDANCE: Stocks could rise 0.25%-0.75% as the Fed reassures markets it’s addressing inflation. 🟢 0.25% HIKE + MORE HIKES SIGNALED FOR OCTOBER AND DECEMBER: Stocks could rise 0.5%-1% as a faster response restores confidence. 🔴 0.25% HIKE + FEARS BIGGER HIKES ARE NEEDED: Stocks could fall 0.25%-1% as traders price in more aggressive tightening. 🔴 0.25% HIKE + RATES NEED TO GO MUCH HIGHER: Stocks could fall 1%-2% on fears of another 2022-style hiking cycle. Too little = inflation fears could send bond yields higher. Too much = markets start worrying about growth. Limitless traders are leaning bullish on $SPY in the short-term, seeing a 62% chance it closes green today : Market: https://limitless.is/spy-sep16 This week will be insane.
@Alejandro_XBTDo you know what happened the last time the 10Y yield was around these levels in 2007? Stocks were still trading near ATHs and most people thought the economy was fine. Then credit started to crack, yields rolled over, the Fed began cutting rates and recession followed. $SPX eventually lost more than 50%. The bond market saw the stress before equities did.
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    @trylimitlessfin🚨🚨🚨 THE MARKET IS NOT READY FOR TODAY’S FED DECISION! The Fed announces its rate decision TODAY at 2:00 PM ET. Prediction markets on Limitless currently see an 87% chance of a RATE HIKE. But, a hike could actually be BULLISH for the stocks. JPMorgan’s trading desk sees five possible scenarios for the S&P 500: 🔴 NO HIKE: Stocks could fall 1.25%-1.75% as inflation fears push longer-term bond yields higher. 🟢 0.25% HIKE, NO NEW GUIDANCE: Stocks could rise 0.25%-0.75% as the Fed reassures markets it’s addressing inflation. 🟢 0.25% HIKE + MORE HIKES SIGNALED FOR OCTOBER AND DECEMBER: Stocks could rise 0.5%-1% as a faster response restores confidence. 🔴 0.25% HIKE + FEARS BIGGER HIKES ARE NEEDED: Stocks could fall 0.25%-1% as traders price in more aggressive tightening. 🔴 0.25% HIKE + RATES NEED TO GO MUCH HIGHER: Stocks could fall 1%-2% on fears of another 2022-style hiking cycle. Too little = inflation fears could send bond yields higher. Too much = markets start worrying about growth. Limitless traders are leaning bullish on $SPY in the short-term, seeing a 62% chance it closes green today : Market: https://limitless.is/spy-sep16 This week will be insane.
    @Alejandro_XBTDo you know what happened the last time the 10Y yield was around these levels in 2007? Stocks were still trading near ATHs and most people thought the economy was fine. Then credit started to crack, yields rolled over, the Fed began cutting rates and recession followed. $SPX eventually lost more than 50%. The bond market saw the stress before equities did.
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