How a Fed rate hike could help—or hurt—stocks
On September 16, 2026, Limitless said its prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike at 87%, while traders gave SPY a 62% chance of closing higher that day.
TLDR
In its September 16 outlook, Limitless cited five S&P 500 scenarios from JPMorgan’s trading desk. No hike could mean a 1.25%–1.75% decline, while a 0.25% hike without new guidance could bring a 0.25%–0.75% gain. A 0.25% hike paired with the prospect of rates needing to go much higher could mean a 1%–2% drop. Separately, a market commentator drew a cautionary comparison with 2007, arguing that bonds showed economic stress before stocks did.
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