US Midterm Elections and Policy Uncertainty on Tariffs, Trade, and Markets

A pre-election analysis cites a Federal Reserve estimate that tariffs imposed from February to November 2025 raised core goods PCE prices by 3.1% through February 2026. It argues US decisions can also affect energy supplies and government borrowing. Ahead of the November 3 midterms, Polymarket and Kalshi put Democrats' House chances at 94.5% and 93%, and Senate chances at 71.5% and 70%, respectively.