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Oil reportedly back above $100 a barrel amid fuel-shortage warnings

The Kobeissi Letter cites record diesel prices and expectations of another Fed rate increase by the end of 2026.

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2 Sources, 11d ago, first seen 11d ago

TLDR

The Kobeissi Letter said on September 19 that oil was back above $100 a barrel amid record diesel prices and a global fuel shortage. It also said another Fed rate increase was expected by year-end. Separately, a post relays Philip Pilkington’s argument that Washington spent weeks suppressing the market instead of allowing gradual price increases that would have encouraged consumers and businesses to adjust. The post describes his forecast of pandemic-like supply-chain disruption driven by physical fuel shortages.

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2 Sources, first seen 11d ago

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Featured Source

Combined views

590.6K

2 Sources, first seen 11d ago

4.3K likes168 comments442 saves346 reposts

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2 Sources

@MarioNawfal🇺🇸🇪🇺 The energy crisis was delayed. Now it’s arriving all at once. Philip Pilkington thinks the biggest mistake of the Iran war may not have been failing to prevent the energy shock. But pretending the shock wasn't happening. With a huge chunk of global oil supply disrupted, Pilkington argues prices should have been allowed to rise gradually, forcing consumers, businesses and logistics networks to adjust before physical shortages appeared. Instead, he says Washington spent weeks suppressing the market and buying time. The result? “𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘮𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢 𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘧 𝘦𝘥𝘨𝘦.” Now France is already reporting fuel shortages, Saudi oil flows to Europe are being squeezed, and Philip sees diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shortages beginning to move through the wider economy. And diesel is where the problem stops being about what you pay at the pump. Trucks, ships and freight trains run on it. Once fuel stops reaching vehicles, goods stop reaching shelves. Pilkington expects the result to look less like an ordinary recession and more like the supply-chain chaos of the pandemic, except with one crucial difference: “𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘩𝘺𝘴𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘨𝘦.” You could remove lockdown regulations overnight. You cannot regulate another barrel of oil into existence. @WeTheBrandon @philippilk
@KobeissiLetterPrepare for an incredibly eventful Q4. We now have the Fed expected to raise interest rates again by year-end with midterm elections 45 days out. Meanwhile, oil prices are back above $100/barrel amid record diesel prices and a global fuel shortage. This comes as 10Y Note Yield rises above 5.00%, the stock market nears record highs, and the AI Revolution continues to accelerate. And, earnings season is set to begin in just a few weeks with big tech companies currently investing $1+ trillion in annual CapEx. Monetary policy, geopolitics, energy, elections, and AI are all converging. We will be breaking it all down in real-time right here on X.
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    2 Sources

    @MarioNawfal🇺🇸🇪🇺 The energy crisis was delayed. Now it’s arriving all at once. Philip Pilkington thinks the biggest mistake of the Iran war may not have been failing to prevent the energy shock. But pretending the shock wasn't happening. With a huge chunk of global oil supply disrupted, Pilkington argues prices should have been allowed to rise gradually, forcing consumers, businesses and logistics networks to adjust before physical shortages appeared. Instead, he says Washington spent weeks suppressing the market and buying time. The result? “𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘮𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢 𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘧 𝘦𝘥𝘨𝘦.” Now France is already reporting fuel shortages, Saudi oil flows to Europe are being squeezed, and Philip sees diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shortages beginning to move through the wider economy. And diesel is where the problem stops being about what you pay at the pump. Trucks, ships and freight trains run on it. Once fuel stops reaching vehicles, goods stop reaching shelves. Pilkington expects the result to look less like an ordinary recession and more like the supply-chain chaos of the pandemic, except with one crucial difference: “𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘩𝘺𝘴𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘨𝘦.” You could remove lockdown regulations overnight. You cannot regulate another barrel of oil into existence. @WeTheBrandon @philippilk
    @KobeissiLetterPrepare for an incredibly eventful Q4. We now have the Fed expected to raise interest rates again by year-end with midterm elections 45 days out. Meanwhile, oil prices are back above $100/barrel amid record diesel prices and a global fuel shortage. This comes as 10Y Note Yield rises above 5.00%, the stock market nears record highs, and the AI Revolution continues to accelerate. And, earnings season is set to begin in just a few weeks with big tech companies currently investing $1+ trillion in annual CapEx. Monetary policy, geopolitics, energy, elections, and AI are all converging. We will be breaking it all down in real-time right here on X.
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