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Four questions about oil, bond yields, the Fed and AI

A September 15 post frames a possible Fed rate hike that week as a key unknown: would it be “one and done” or the start of a tightening cycle?

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1 Source, 15d ago, first seen 15d ago

TLDR

A September 15 post argues that four questions are fueling systemic uncertainty for the global economy and markets: how oil supply disruptions evolve, alongside China’s role as a “swing consumer”; whether the US Treasury might intervene further to influence bond yields; what comes next for Fed rates; and how AI’s promise and peril are balanced. The post puts market pricing of a Fed hike that week at 90%, while questioning whether such a move would be “one and done” or begin a tightening cycle.

Combined views

44.6K

1 Source, first seen 15d ago

344 likes26 comments35 saves37 reposts

Combined views

44.6K

1 Source, first seen 15d ago

344 likes26 comments35 saves37 reposts

Sentiment

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Sentiment

Positive——Negative

Summary

Not enough discussion yet.

No sentiment analysis available yet.

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Semafor reports the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5%. CNBC says the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 7.45% on September 24, its highest since April 2024.

1 Source

@elerianmGood morning. To illustrate how uncertain the current juncture is for the global economy and markets, here are four major questions. Each injects volatility into a key global price; together, they fuel systemic uncertainty: Oil: How supply disruptions evolve, alongside China's role as a "swing consumer." Yields: Whether the US Treasury will be tempted into additional market intervention to influence bond yields. The Fed: If it validates this week the market's 90% pricing of a rate hike, does this prove to be a "one and done" or the start of a tightening cycle. AI: How the balance between promise and peril is struck. #economy #markets #yields #federalreserve #oil #ai #energy
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    Mohamed A. El-Erian

    1 Source

    @elerianmGood morning. To illustrate how uncertain the current juncture is for the global economy and markets, here are four major questions. Each injects volatility into a key global price; together, they fuel systemic uncertainty: Oil: How supply disruptions evolve, alongside China's role as a "swing consumer." Yields: Whether the US Treasury will be tempted into additional market intervention to influence bond yields. The Fed: If it validates this week the market's 90% pricing of a rate hike, does this prove to be a "one and done" or the start of a tightening cycle. AI: How the balance between promise and peril is struck. #economy #markets #yields #federalreserve #oil #ai #energy
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