Extropic AI founder Guillaume Verdon and executive Kevin Weil argue that optimism is a structural necessity for startup success

@stuffyokodraws The version I've always loved is "pessimists are often right, but optimists are sometimes able to change the world"

It is very easy to be pessimistic and right.

Most ideas are bad. Most markets are too early, too small, too crowded, too hard. You can build an entire worldview around seeing the flaw first, and be rewarded for it over and over again

But the strange thing about startups is that the only outcomes that matter come from the places where someone was optimistic and right

I used to underestimate how much this matters. But there is a whole world of difference between reacting to the world as it is, and having enough understanding of the world as it is to still stay open to what it could become

Long optimism

@stuffyokodraws related:

@stuffyokodraws "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on silly people who don't know what they're doing."

Or something like that anyway.

Pessimists have no value. Optimists already see the risks and downsides and move forward with caution.

Pessimists, if they’re right, the outcome does not move anything forward.

If they’re wrong, they cost friction to the movement forward.

Caution is fine. Believing something will fail is not. Better to use that energy on things they want to succeed.

@stuffyokodraws Yup. Of course you can be pessimistic and right is a thing.....but whilst saying this it can become your default setting

I'd still rather be optimistic and sometimes wrong than consistently pessimistic and sometimes right

@stuffyokodraws But most VCs tend to play it safe, ironically backing the pessimists. This is especially true in Europe. We’ll invest when you don’t really need money.

@stuffyokodraws The part that's often ignored is that an Optimistic Attitude is what enables you to recognize and overcome the Obstacles you WILL encounter as you build your vision: they can be overcome. But many folks treat talking about obstacles as negative, which reveals how little they know

@pmarca Long startups

@stuffyokodraws The pessimist is right ninety-nine times and the optimist is right once, and that once is the whole company. Pessimism scores great and somehow never wins the game.

@stuffyokodraws 💯

@stuffyokodraws 💯

@stuffyokodraws @pmarca

@stuffyokodraws @venturetwins 💯

@pmarca A big part of why you do not see the flaw is because you don't want to see it.

@stuffyokodraws also related:

@stuffyokodraws Applied Optimism

This scales to the culture level. Some countries in europe treat pessimistic-and-right as intelligence. Big part of why the breakout companies don't come from there.

The fix isn't being wrong on purpose. It's optimizing for optimism over being right: accepting the flaws and building anyway.

@stuffyokodraws I use to be a pessismist, thinking that people were too hopeful and rosey-lensed, and i was being realistic. But I dont think thats correct.

@stuffyokodraws Nicely said. Can also be an approach to life...