BREAKING! This may well be the beginning of the end.
🚨BREAKING: SoftBank tried to borrow $6 billion against its 13% OpenAI stock… to keep funding OpenAI
Banks said NO
They don’t believe OpenAI is worth $852 billion 💀
Many users agreed with Gary Marcus that OpenAI risks a WeWork-like collapse after banks rejected SoftBank's loan backed by its shares, while a few expressed optimism that the company will overcome the setbacks.
Prediction (which I have made before and which increasingly seems likely) OpenAI is gonna fall, and take a lot down with it.
I was first to call the death of tokenmaxxing (ahead of @zerohedge), among the first (in 2023) to warn that the economics of Generative AI was problematic, and first (also 2023) to warn that OpenAI could turn out to be the WeWork of OpenAI.
In my latest newsletter — drawing on a recent interview I did with @realsteveeisman — I explain how the whole thing might fall apart.
With SoftBank apparently struggling to get a margin loan against it’s OpenAI shares, it’s maybe time to repost this, from two years ago.
The vast majority of my earlier worries remain:
discussed more here:
I was first to call the death of tokenmaxxing (ahead of @zerohedge), among the first (in 2023) to warn that the economics of Generative AI was problematic, and first (also 2023) to warn that OpenAI could turn out to be the WeWork of OpenAI.
In my latest newsletter — drawing on a recent interview I did with @realsteveeisman — I explain how the whole thing might fall apart.
@GaryMarcus Trump filling the liquidity gap tho with US govt backing. OpenAI/Anthropic are too big to fail at this point. Their backers need exit liquidity or the system will collapse in on itself
@tkanthh i always think of wework, but sure.
@GaryMarcus We've gone from debating model intelligence to debating capital structure.
@GaryMarcus This makes me wonder if Anthropic is following the Openai playbook…building hype around a model that may not offer much that’s actually new.
@neuralamp4ever i doubt the $ will cover “a few years” given their burn rates.
@GaryMarcus Funding a collateral by debt on that collateral. 😅😂 AI surely innovates the world.
@GaryMarcus Enron 2.0?
@GaryMarcus My strategy analysis!
🔻
@ThatNYCMan @GaryMarcus OpenAI is the first domino. When it goes, a lot of other AI companies will declare bankruptcy, merge, or be acquired at bargain prices.
@GaryMarcus Do you think Anthopic will be worth $10T in 2 years then?
@GaryMarcus Well, Oracle failing to raise debt wasn't.
It's scary just how many red flags are being ignored.
@GaryMarcus @zerohedge You should really seek psychological help
@GaryMarcus that $100 billion dollar position in OpenAI is not even worth $6 billion lol
Altman & Eloon, are the two most dangerous people in the world next to Trump. OpenAI and spacex i pee owe will blow up the financial markets.
I think that's a given. I actually think SpaceX sham IPO is going to trigger massive fallout that is going to hit all of the major AI players.
Anthropic's antics are going to backfire on them also.
I think AI inference is going to become a commodity that everyone will end up having at their fingertips.
@GaryMarcus SoftBank is the biggest scam in the world. It’s the scam behind all of the other tech scams. Rising rates in Japan could be what finally brings down the house of cards.
@GaryMarcus SpaceX, somehow worth $1.75T
~12B lifetime invested (145x) ~18.64B revenue 2025 (94x) ~4.94B net losses 2025 Accumulated $41B of losses
Asking for $75B, over 6x its reported lifetime private funding.
Private gains. Public as exit liquidity.
BREAKING! This may well be the beginning of the end.
🚨BREAKING: SoftBank tried to borrow $6 billion against its 13% OpenAI stock… to keep funding OpenAI
Banks said NO
They don’t believe OpenAI is worth $852 billion 💀