Rob Miles Praises Marcus for Concrete Falsifiable Predictions
AI safety figure and commentator debate value of Marcus's concrete but inaccurate forecasts.
Entities: Rob Miles, Gary Marcus
Rob Miles publicly commended Gary Marcus for issuing specific, testable AI predictions even though they proved inaccurate, calling the act virtuous for its transparency. In reply, TeortaxesTex agreed on the moral aspect but argued the original high confidence revealed flawed reasoning. The brief exchange centers on whether making falsifiable forecasts remains epistemically responsible when the forecasts fail. No further updates or resolutions are reported in the packet.
@teortaxesTex I respect him a lot for making clear public predictions that are so concrete and falsifiable. Not very good predictions it turns out, but it was very virtuous to make them.
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Rob Miles Praises Marcus for Concrete Falsifiable Predictions
AI safety figure and commentator debate value of Marcus's concrete but inaccurate forecasts.
Entities: Rob Miles, Gary Marcus
Rob Miles publicly commended Gary Marcus for issuing specific, testable AI predictions even though they proved inaccurate, calling the act virtuous for its transparency. In reply, TeortaxesTex agreed on the moral aspect but argued the original high confidence revealed flawed reasoning. The brief exchange centers on whether making falsifiable forecasts remains epistemically responsible when the forecasts fail. No further updates or resolutions are reported in the packet.
@teortaxesTex I respect him a lot for making clear public predictions that are so concrete and falsifiable. Not very good predictions it turns out, but it was very virtuous to make them.
Reactions from ranked influencers
1 post@robertskmiles It's morally virtuous, but the confidence shows he had garbage epistemics
Reactions from the X community
@robertskmiles @teortaxesTex Do you also respect the homeless guy on the street corner yelling that the end is near? He has no technical competence, his cognitive science background is irrelevant. Why people take him seriously is beyond me.