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    Altman Attributes Slow AI Progress to Economic Inertia

    Posts quote Altman on why economic adaptation lags his earlier predictions.

    Yann LeCunYL
    Ethan MollickEM
    Beff (e/acc)B(
    18 Sources, 45d ago, first seen 45d ago

    TLDR

    Social media posts quote Sam Altman stating he was wrong about the speed of AI-driven change after GPT-4 in 2023. He said the economy has so much inertia that society and businesses adapt more slowly than the technology itself. The remarks appear in a post shared by @firesidealpha and were circulated by investors, researchers, and journalists. Some compared the timeline to internet adoption, while others noted the contrast with faster technical progress. Sentiment in replies was predominantly negative.

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    707.5K

    18 Sources, first seen 45d ago

    Combined views

    707.5K

    18 Sources, first seen 45d ago

    5.1K likes
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    18 Sources

    Zephyr@zephyr_z9"I think I was wrong about a few things, but one in terms of the speed: the economy just has so much inertia." LMAO45d
    Katie Miller@KatieMillerSam Altman blows whichever way the wind does45d
    Brian Roemmele@BrianRoemmeleUnfortunately these types “thought” and pooped in your’s and mine’s hot tub and just casually walk out with all they left behind in society. They have no wisdom and prefer to think they know better than us. Only to later admit—they didn’t—know.45d
    Yann LeCun@ylecun@firesidealpha Sudden Clarity Sam realizing that real-world dynamics equations have inertia and friction terms. (Particularly when they concern large systems like human societies). If only the singularitarians, AI doomers, AGI-is-near crowd, and other SV cultists could realize that....45d
    Taylor Lorenz@TaylorLorenz“We've all been too ambitious on timelines. Even with this incredible technology, society and the economy will adapt more slowly."45d
    Yishan@yishanWhatever else you want to say about him, I think Sam Altman is the most level-headed and even-keeled of the AI leaders. He's consistently un-crazy about this totally crazy time. If we take the internet as a benchmark, it took until the mid/late-2010s for the internet to truly be society-wide, and if we think of GPT-3.5 being the equivalent of Netscape going big in 1995, then we should expect the full "integration into society and subsequent transformation by AI" to occur around the early 2040s.45d
    rohit@krishnanrohitWho should rise in status based on this new realisation?45d
    Ravid Shwartz Ziv@ziv_ravidSociety and the economy adapt more slowly than the tech. Welcome to what Alex Imax (@alexolegimas) told us on The Information Bottleneck months ago, Sam. You can find the link below, Sam. I'm sure you'll find a few more things you missed!45d
    Pete Skomoroch@peteskomorochRT @firesidealpha: Sam Altman admits he was wrong on AI's timeline and says society and the economy will adapt more slowly "I thought when…45d
    Siqi Chen@bladerRT @yishan: Whatever else you want to say about him, I think Sam Altman is the most level-headed and even-keeled of the AI leaders. He's co…45d
    Featured Source

    Sentiment

    Positive22.5%77.5%Negative

    Sentiment

    Positive22.5%77.5%Negative

    Summary

    Replies largely dismissed Sam Altman's admission of overly ambitious AI timelines as investor-focused hype, while some accounts credited real regulatory and enterprise barriers for the slower pace.

    Based on 100 sentiment-bearing replies from 89 accounts across 6 conversations.

    Sam AltmanGPT-4OpenAI

    18 Sources

    Zephyr@zephyr_z9"I think I was wrong about a few things, but one in terms of the speed: the economy just has so much inertia." LMAO45d
    Katie Miller@KatieMillerSam Altman blows whichever way the wind does45d
    Brian Roemmele@BrianRoemmeleUnfortunately these types “thought” and pooped in your’s and mine’s hot tub and just casually walk out with all they left behind in society. They have no wisdom and prefer to think they know better than us. Only to later admit—they didn’t—know.45d
    Yann LeCun@ylecun@firesidealpha Sudden Clarity Sam realizing that real-world dynamics equations have inertia and friction terms. (Particularly when they concern large systems like human societies). If only the singularitarians, AI doomers, AGI-is-near crowd, and other SV cultists could realize that....45d
    Taylor Lorenz@TaylorLorenz“We've all been too ambitious on timelines. Even with this incredible technology, society and the economy will adapt more slowly."45d
    Yishan@yishanWhatever else you want to say about him, I think Sam Altman is the most level-headed and even-keeled of the AI leaders. He's consistently un-crazy about this totally crazy time. If we take the internet as a benchmark, it took until the mid/late-2010s for the internet to truly be society-wide, and if we think of GPT-3.5 being the equivalent of Netscape going big in 1995, then we should expect the full "integration into society and subsequent transformation by AI" to occur around the early 2040s.45d
    rohit@krishnanrohitWho should rise in status based on this new realisation?45d
    Ravid Shwartz Ziv@ziv_ravidSociety and the economy adapt more slowly than the tech. Welcome to what Alex Imax (@alexolegimas) told us on The Information Bottleneck months ago, Sam. You can find the link below, Sam. I'm sure you'll find a few more things you missed!45d
    Pete Skomoroch@peteskomorochRT @firesidealpha: Sam Altman admits he was wrong on AI's timeline and says society and the economy will adapt more slowly "I thought when…45d
    Siqi Chen@bladerRT @yishan: Whatever else you want to say about him, I think Sam Altman is the most level-headed and even-keeled of the AI leaders. He's co…45d
    Summary

    Replies largely dismissed Sam Altman's admission of overly ambitious AI timelines as investor-focused hype, while some accounts credited real regulatory and enterprise barriers for the slower pace.

    Based on 100 sentiment-bearing replies from 89 accounts across 6 conversations.

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