Engineer Nathan Young predicts Marcus's skepticism will age poorly.
I have a great idea. I am going to spend a trillion dollars so I can make $10 billion a year in profit, if all goes well.
That’s a 1% annual return – IF it works out.
Who’s in?
Don’t worry about the risk that it might not work out!
Many users dismissed Gary Marcus's critique of trillion-dollar AI bets yielding just 1% returns as missing infrastructure upside or overly skeptical, while others agreed the poor math and profit focus deserved scrutiny.
No Digg Deeper questions have been answered for this story yet.
@NathanpmYoung time for a second bet? is there a specific part of the logic you question.
@GaryMarcus I know you're winning our one bet, but I just expect this take to age very badly.
@GaryMarcus I am in as long as your TAM is annual world GDP to the power of 69420
@twittle46402935 that’s just the first year!
Sure, again, though I can only do a few hundred $100 if to charity. I expect at least one of the current companies (DeepMind, Anthropic, OpenAI) to be worth a lot in some time when you will have guessed the bubble has burst.
When do you definitely think the bubble will have burst?
@NathanpmYoung i mean Google is already worth 4.4T; i am not expecting them to go bankrupt. 🤣
Sure, again, though I can only do a few hundred $100 if to charity. I expect at least one of the current companies (DeepMind, Anthropic, OpenAI) to be worth a lot in some time when you will have guessed the bubble has burst.
When do you definitely think the bubble will have burst?
@GaryMarcus Are you going to deplete water reserves, antagonize half the work force, engage in mass surveillance, replace most of the internet with mindless content, cause another AI winter? If the answer is "perhaps", then I'm your man!
@GaryMarcus So we could "worth 9T more than current valuation" or something.
@GaryMarcus I know you're winning our one bet, but I just expect this take to age very badly.
@GaryMarcus get this man a series h round now
@GaryMarcus
@rabois @pitdesi @AliceFromQueens but look here is a genius business idea lol:
I have a great idea. I am going to spend a trillion dollars so I can make $10 billion a year in profit, if all goes well.
That’s a 1% annual return – IF it works out.
Who’s in?
Don’t worry about the risk that it might not work out!
@GaryMarcus Yes, we need an 'Artificial Market Hypothesis' (AMH) to explain how things work today.
@GaryMarcus That's essentially Walmart's business plan.
@GaryMarcus the 1 percent return narrative only holds if you ignore the optionality the trillion buys. nobody at hyperscaler pnls is underwriting flat profit, they are underwriting the right to print the next decade of compute supply. agi optionality is the actual asset.
@GaryMarcus Let's collaborate?
Are you also planning to build AGI??
@GaryMarcus The Ai trade in a nutshell
@GaryMarcus Gary - Are you going to spend a trillion dollars of your own money, or are you going to get it from investors? Are you getting taxpayer money for that Trillion-dollar company like AI and SpaceX are? Why do I have to help Elon Musk with my money?
@GaryMarcus I'm all in, but first I gotta help a prince in Nigeria obtain his rightful inheritance of which he will give me 10% if I send him the wire fee and $1000.00 in Google Play giftcards for legal fees.
@GaryMarcus If you had spent a trillion on it ten years ago, how much would you have now?
@GaryMarcus Sounds like government.