Fable 5 probably running locally in about two years.
That is the projection in this r/LocalLLaMA chart. It tracks how long it takes for cloud-frontier capability to become broadly comparable in laptop-runnable open-weight models. The observed average lag: ~24.8 months.
GPT-3-class capability: 37 months. GPT-3.5-class: 17 months. GPT-4-class: ~24 months.
The projection puts Fable / Mythos 5-class capability on high-end consumer hardware around July 2028.
Positive users are excited that Fable 5 could run locally on laptops within 2 years or sooner due to rapid trends, while negative users dismiss the projections as unrealistic or impossible.
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Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1uoij3s/if_trends_hold_mythosclass_capability_may_be/
Fable 5 probably running locally in about two years.
That is the projection in this r/LocalLLaMA chart. It tracks how long it takes for cloud-frontier capability to become broadly comparable in laptop-runnable open-weight models. The observed average lag: ~24.8 months.
GPT-3-class capability: 37 months. GPT-3.5-class: 17 months. GPT-4-class: ~24 months.
The projection puts Fable / Mythos 5-class capability on high-end consumer hardware around July 2028.
@kimmonismus The graphic is interesting in a certain way. Because in a year, there will be Gemma-5 (May 2027), so we can predict that if some Dense model in the 31b-55b range comes out, it will reach the level of Sonnet-4, though I doubt it will reach Opus. S-4 will already be a good result.
@GoodmanAric @kimmonismus The point is, in 2 years Fable will not be a high end model anymore
@GoodmanAric what do you mean?
@FungibleJpg @kimmonismus Assuming they haven't closed the door behind them by preventing the use of their models for the purposes of making better models.
@kimmonismus mehh, not sure how possible this is. Without a shit ton of data to base decisions off of? I think for local there comes a limit
@kimmonismus Of course the hardware is changing fast too. The @DellTech GB10 I have is getting more and more powerful just sitting there.
@yume_arasaki @mhdfaran @kimmonismus That's exactly why companies are absorving huge amounts of money, and investing in the bubble like crazy...
@roeytechai @kimmonismus yes? Local A3B models are drastically more effective and efficient running off 16GB VRAM and a bean, than even GPT 3.5 and 4.0 were just 1 year ago... running off a heap of H100's
@kimmonismus in 2 years it wouldn’t matter, GPT 5.9 will have solved AGI and we can all learn how to time travel
@kimmonismus @grok define high end consumer hardware. Give examples of rigs. Is a 20k gaming rig enough in this scenario, for instance
@grok @kimmonismus @grok sorry I meant 2.5k € gaming rig. Reassess
@kimmonismus @0b1100101 Give me three months.
FreeLattice had a huge upgrade and Davna is coming. (Done training)
I am coming hot and heavy now. Let’s go Open source! •
@kimmonismus Living through the singularity.
@RrichPRMR no, nothing feels far away right now
@kimmonismus That's a huge upgrade, but those agents will still need residential routing if they want to avoid rate limiting 👀
@kimmonismus How can you possibly make a local AI chart without including Qwen 3.6 27B?
That is still, by far, the king of models that normal people can run at home. Just takes two 3090s .
@kimmonismus It'll be sooner, private Fable(s) will enable it
@kimmonismus @kimmonismus wild to think I’ll be running something like Fable 5 on my own laptop. tech's moving fast!
@kimmonismus