Commentary on X
See, that's just the problem It's hard to model something that is low frequency, high impact That "trend" is contingent upon a large war not breaking out The risk of a nuclear exchange between several different rivals is far from zero Twice in one century we had two global wars. What do you think the base rate is we should be using for this century? Does AI increase or decrease the risk of a major confrontation?
3:37 PM · Jul 14, 2026@krishnanrohit Hopefully not one like this
3:21 PM · Jul 14, 2026@Surveil__Lance Even that tragedy was a blip, that's how powerful the trend was
3:31 PM · Jul 14, 2026@thiagoTF It's called the economy. It's lossy but works bloody well.
3:31 PM · Jul 14, 2026View all
@krishnanrohit The text bubble? Neither really, I just though this was the most relevant/plausible chart and the meme version has funny/relevant text. (Like the hyperexponential growth trend continues, but now in a much smaller period of time.)
3:54 PM · Jul 14, 2026If we think of AI as the next industrial revolution we should ask which chart like these we're likely to get.
3:03 PM · Jul 14, 2026