Zvi Mowshowitz says Polymarket odds for Claude Fable 5 returning to US users by August are overconfident due to KYC hurdles

Someone knows something

@gomes_ha @TheZvi And now on AWS bedrock.

@gregisenberg it's because of the Claude Code update:

@blader how to correctly read this chart: 63% of the betting pool on fable's return date believe it will happen by july 1st.

how to incorrectly read this chart: there is a 63% chance fable returns by july 1st

@TheZvi Is this already taken into account (I’m sure it is, just checking why it doesn’t move the needle more):

@blader Patiently waiting for it to be released to the public again

@gregisenberg Please let them be right

@blader It’s back live in Bedrock

@TheZvi it's all much too pessimistic Zvi! no one knows anything. just look at this 1h chart

@blader wonder how much people will pay for usage limits though, seems like we are past the plan inclusion part

@TheZvi What’s your likelihood that the export control will stay in place even after KYC is implemented, so foreigners will not be able to access it at all?

@blader That something is called market manipulation

@AndrewCurran_ @gomes_ha @TheZvi Does that mean it can actually be used right now through the AWS API?

@blader Someone found evidence in Claude Code CLI v .190 (new Fable 5 related strings).

@blader Makes sense. Anthropic's reportedly been in daily talks with the administration, so a jump like that likely reflects real progress toward a middle ground. Pair it with how many people have been asking for Fable 5 back, and it points to productive conversations finally landing.

@blader Sweet…

@blader june 26th will be good time for Fable 5 comeback

@TheZvi The X factor is that the admin doesn’t give a shit about sufficient KYC, they just need lip service and ideological buy-in

@blader I know all the things that did this. Guess I’m an insider

@blader I wonder if it will be as good as the “old” version of Fable